The proposals presented by the ANP (National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels) for the new regulation of the oil market Cooking gas poses risks to public safety and can encourage organized crimeaccording to a study published by USP (University of São Paulo).
According to the research, the changes can bring about an environment of low supervision and easy exploration by factions. The three main proposals of the Agency are:
- Flexibility in filling cylinders (“cross-filling”) from other brands by any distributor
- Authorization for fractional filling of cylinders in remote spray centers, including in urban areas
- Replacement of the embossed brand, as a traceability and accountability mechanism, with non-existent and untried electronic systems
According to the ANP, the justifications are the increased competition, reduced barriers to entry and improved access to the product.
The “Policy Brief”, prepared by ESEM-USP (School of Multidimensional Security at the University of São Paulo), points out that filling cylinders from other brands dilutes the chain of custody and accountability.
Fractional filling in remote areas multiplies operating points into areas of low state presence. And electronic traceability, if implemented without prior validation and independent audit capability, can produce “formal control without real control”.
According to the document, the fuel sector is already the target of systemic infiltration. It is estimated that 70% to 80% of cylinder retail in Rio de Janeiro is under the control of militias and factionswhich impose surcharges of up to 30% on communities
The research also highlights the evidence presented in Operation Hidden Carbonlaunched in 2025 by the Public Ministry of São Paulo, which revealed a in the liquid fuels market, using shell companies and fintechs to launder money.
The “Tankgás Case” was also mentioned as an example of companies that have already tried to use legal loopholes for filling cylinders from other brands without guaranteeing safetygenerating unfair competition.
The study also compares the Brazilian proposal with regulatory failures in neighboring countries. No Mexicocentralization and oversight failures allowed cartels (such as the CJNG) to dominate “huachigás” (LPG theft), generating losses of US$357 million annually.
No Ecuadorthe easing coincided with an increase of 7600% in clandestine drilling in pipelines to supply drug trafficking and no Paraguaytwo decades of unsupervised liberalization resulted in 80% of cylinders are past their expiration date.
The data presented also indicates a ANP’s supervisory fragilitywhich according to the study, suffered a between 2013 and 2025. In July 2025, the agency even suspended the Fuel Quality Monitoring Program due to lack of funding.
According to what was mentioned by researchers, any regulatory change must precede a strengthening of state capacity.
In a note, the ANP reported that it carried out a previous study (Regulatory Impact Analysis) with the aim of identify and evaluate normative and non-normative alternatives. Read in full:
“The ANP has not yet presented any proposal to change the standards of the LPG market. What the Agency did was a preliminary study (Regulatory Impact Analysis – AIR), with the aim of identifying and evaluating normative and non-normative alternatives, as well as analyzing their effectiveness in resolving the issue presented and, broadly speaking, potential consequences. The report of this study does not bring new proposals from the Agency for the LPG market. These proposals will be set out in draft resolutions that will still be subject to deliberation by the Board of the ANP. These drafts, if approved, will be submitted to a public consultation and hearing, in which all interested parties will be able to participate. The review of the GLP regulatory framework is on the ANP’s regulatory agenda and began in June 2023.”
*Under the supervision of Rafael Saldanha
