In Western intelligence circles it was considered a bold, almost implausible scenario. However, the joint war plans developed by Israel and supported by the United States Government contemplated a radical strategy for the future of Iran: reinstating the ultraconservative and former hardline leader, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as the new president, after decapitating the theocratic regime.
As revealed this Wednesday The New York Timesciting senior US officials on condition of anonymity, the multi-phase regime change plan was structured around the start of the military campaign, launched on February 28. The operation began with a series of devastating coordinated airstrikes, which ended the life of Iran’s then supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with other senior political and military leaders in Tehran.
The original design of the offensive anticipated that, after the initial bombings and a planned invasion of Kurdish forces on the borders, the institutional framework of the country would be destabilized to the point of structural collapse. It hasn’t happened. However, the allies understood that, in this power vacuum, a previously arranged “alternative administration” would take control to stabilize the nation, under new leadership that fit the vision of President Donald Trump.
The Republican himself publicly confirmed in the first days of the conflict that the ideal would be for “someone from within” to take the reins of Iranian territory. He even indicated that three of the men the US had considered as Khamenei’s successors could no longer be placed, because they had been killed in the same attack that killed the cleric.
Ahmadinejad’s appointment, however, was not on almost anyone’s mind. We are talking about a tough leader, a declared enemy of Tel Aviv and Washington. Therefore, the revelation of Times has caused deep astonishment among the international diplomatic community.
During his presidential term, between 2005 and 2013, the Iranian leader became known globally for his fiery anti-Western rhetoric, his Holocaust denialist positions and his famous call to “wipe Israel off the map.” In addition, he was one of the main promoters of Tehran’s controversial nuclear program and led brutal campaigns of internal repression against civil dissent and reformist movements.
The pragmatic turn and the tactical error of Mossad
“To call it an unusual election would be a drastically shortfall,” the newspaper’s analysts acknowledge. And then? How do you explain your choice, despite this background? The information indicates that the Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, considered that Ahmadinejad was the ideal figure to manage the complex political, social and military reality of a post-Khamenei Iran and its evaluation weighed.
American and Israeli strategists argued, after much analysis, that the former president, despite not being a moderate at all, possessed the internal legitimacy and popular recognition necessary to contain the chaos and avoid a prolonged civil war.
In recent years, the former president had engaged in harsh public confrontations with the ruling clergy and the Revolutionary Guard, which resulted in him being subjected to strict surveillance and a de facto house arrest regime. This distancing from the clerical leadership facilitated indirect approaches.
Intelligence reports cited by the North American media highlight that the former leader had recently made trips to countries such as Hungary and Guatemala – nations with solid ties with the Government of the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu – and in an interview granted in 2019 to The New York Times He even praised Trump’s corporate pragmatism, defining him as “a man of action” capable of calculating commercial costs and benefits.
However, the ambitious political plan was completely derailed during the first day of hostilities, due to a serious operational error on the ground. According to details provided by official sources, an Israeli strike force bombed Ahmadinejad’s residence in Tehran with the original purpose of “releasing” him from confinement, neutralizing the Revolutionary Guard commandos guarding the perimeter. But the attack did not go as expected.
Satellite images examined in the investigation confirm that, while the main structure of the house suffered moderate damage, a security checkpoint at the entrance to the street was completely pulverized. In the melee and resulting explosions, several regime guards were killed, but Ahmadinejad himself was wounded by shrapnel.
“The regime change plan collapsed because Ahmadinejad himself became completely disillusioned with the operation after being wounded in the attack,” US administration officials told the newspaper.
The incident cut short the lines of communication and trust between the parties. After surviving the bombing that almost cost him his life, the former Iranian president was extremely suspicious of the true intentions of his shadow allies and disassociated himself from the commitments made.
Since the day of the armed incursion, Ahmadinejad has not made any public appearance and his current whereabouts are kept under strict state secrecy, leaving the transition plan buried under the rubble of the failed rescue operation. In the end, it was Mojtaba, Khamenei’s son, who took over as supreme leader and it is his like-minded radicals who are in charge.
