The president () had a positive swing in relation to senator Flávio Bolsonaro (-RJ) in a possible second round. The PT member scored 47% compared to his opponent’s 43%, according to the new Nexus survey, commissioned by the bank.
The pre-candidates, who appeared tied with 46% in March, opened a difference of four percentage points in May, within the margin of error, plus or minus two points. In April, Lula was numerically ahead, with 46% against the senator’s 45%. Whites, nulls and no candidates fluctuated from 7% to 9% in the period.
The BTG/Nexus survey interviewed 2,045 voters between May 22nd and 24th. The survey, which is registered with the TSE under number BR-04193/2026, was carried out over the telephone.
In the simulation with Romeu Zema (Novo), the president improved his performance throughout the historical series. Lula had 46% in March, went to 45% in April and increased to 49% in May. Zema went from 40% to 41% and then to 38%. White, null and no candidates varied between 11% and 12%, while 2% were unable to respond in the three surveys.
Against Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), the current president fluctuated from 46% to 45% until April and returned to 46% in May. The former governor of Goiás had 41% in the first two months and is now at 40%. Blanks and nulls totaled 12% this month, the same performance as in March. In April, they had reached 11%. Only 1% of respondents did not respond. The number was 2% in April and, again, 1% in March.
First round
Considering the first round, Lula maintained stability, with 41% of voting intentions in the three rounds of the survey, from March to May. Flávio fluctuated negatively throughout the historical series: he had 38% in March, fell to 36% in April and reached 35% in May.
it varied from 4% to 5% between April and May, while it fluctuated from 4% to 5% and then fell back to 4%. (Missão) went from 2% in March to 4% in April, maintaining the level in May.
Voters who intended to vote blank, null or for no candidate went from 8% to 6%, and those who did not know or did not want to respond totaled 2% in the entire historical series.
Joaquim Barbosa (DC) would be the first round option for 3% of voters in May. The former president of the party replaces Aldo Rebelo in the survey, then the party’s only pre-candidate for president.
In the graph showing the evolution of voting intentions, both were included in the “others” category. In March, this group did not score, it reached 1% in April and is now at 3%.
In another tested scenario, which includes more candidates, the current president and senator had fluctuations within the margin of error. Lula went from 41% to 40% of voting intentions, and Flávio went from 36% to 35%, preserving the five-point gap for the PT member. Caiado went from 3% to 5%.
Romeu Zema and Renan Santos remained stable, with 4% and 3%, respectively. (Avante) went from 2% to 1%, while (Mobiliza) maintained 1%. Whites, nulls and no candidates went from 6% to 7%.
Vote decision
The survey also measured the certainty of the voting decision. The majority (70%) say they are already certain about their vote and do not intend to change. Another 28% say they can change candidates by October, and 1% did not know how to answer. Nexus cross-referenced data on choice certainty and voting intentions in the most complete first round scenario, which includes Daciolo and Cury.
Lula’s voters are the most convinced among the pre-candidates tested. According to the survey, 81% of those who declare their vote for the current president say they have already decided, while 19% say they can still change their choice. Among Flávio’s supporters, 71% consider the vote consolidated, 27% admit change, and 3% were unable to respond.
Among the other candidates, Renan Santos appears with 54% of voters decided and 46% open to changing their vote. Augusto Cury registers 49% of voters with a consolidated decision and 51% with the possibility of change. Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema have 39% of firm votes, while Joaquim Barbosa has 37%, and Cabo Daciolo, 35%.
Government performance
The survey also measured how voters evaluate Lula’s administration. Respondents were able to choose between five options: excellent (15%), good (22%), regular (22%), bad (7%) and terrible (33%).
The positive assessment (excellent/good) was 37% in May, after reaching 35% in March and 33% in April. Disapproval (bad/terrible) still leads, but the index fell from 44% to 40% in the period. Those who evaluate the government on a regular basis ranged from 21% in March, to 23% in April and ended May at 22%. Undecided voters stood at 1% since the pack.
Disapproval of management closed at 48% in May, indicating a downward trend after reaching 51% in March and 49% in April. In the same period, the approval rate went from 45% to 47%, reducing the gap to 1pp. Those undecided successively fluctuated from 4% to 5% and then 6% over these three months.
