ZAP
Banco BPI predicts a slowdown in the real estate sector, driven by the growing gap between house prices and wages, the rise in interest rates and the “decreased expectations of mediators and developers”, despite the acceleration in the supply of new housing.
“After the strong appreciation recorded in 2025, BPI revised its forecasts for the IPH in 2026, anticipating a slowdown in the market. Among the main factors are the gap between housing prices and income, the slowdown observed at the beginning of the year and the expectation of an increase in housing supply”, states Banco BPI in the monthly report on the residential real estate sector.
According to BPI, this should result not only from a higher construction pace to recent years, but also to the impact of the PRR.
According to , an analysis carried out by Banco BPI’s Economic and Financial Studies department, states that the appreciation of houses in Portugal, in recent years, has been more pronounced than the growth in family income, thus increasing the effort ratio in accessing housing.
Despite the fact that the bank assessment of housing continues to rise, having reached 2151 euros per square meter in March, “there are signs of slowdown”.The median assessment lost some steam, registering a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, below the monthly average of 17.4% observed in 2025.
The study also highlights the stagnation of the Portuguese economywhich registered zero variation in the first quarter of the year, due to the impact of storms and war in the Middle East. There was also upward pressure on Euribor rates, with the six-month rate reaching 2.45%, which highest value since February 2025.
The outlook for housing supply remains, however, positive, with construction revealing a good growth rate. The number of residential buildings increased by 5.5%, to 26,714 in 2025, which, according to Banco BPI, is the “highest since 2010”.
At the beginning of the month, Bruno Coelhoadministrator of the real estate sector at Doutor Finances, highlighted that the market may be on the way to a slowdown, as families begin to postpone purchasing decisions. The fact that purchasing decisions are beginning to be more considered and postponed means that there are more properties on the market and prices are reduced.
