GENEVA, May 28 (Reuters) – Average global temperatures are expected to reach near-record levels over the next five years, with temperatures in the 🏽 Arctic expected to warm faster than those in other regions, according to a report from the UN meteorological agency and the UK Met Office, released this Thursday.
The annual report, which provides regional temperature and rainfall forecasts, predicts that annual global average near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900.
“There is very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature continues to rise,” Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, told Reuters.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, governments promised to try to prevent the average increase in global temperature from exceeding 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels — above which severe weather events grow in intensity.
The report states that it is very likely that the global average near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
It also predicts that there will be a year between 2026 and 2030 in which global average temperatures exceed the hottest year on record, 2024, when they exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era for the first time.
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Temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C limit does not mean the Paris Agreement has failed, as it refers to a 20-year long-term average rather than a single year of exceeding, Seabrook said, noting that as the world approaches that threshold, it is increasingly likely that it will be exceeded more frequently.
“The science is very clear that the window to maintain the global average temperature at 1.5 degrees is rapidly closing,” Seabrook added.
More severe weather events
Arctic winter temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere over the next five years are expected to increase by more than 3.5 times the global average, reaching about 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, according to the report.
Arctic sea ice is forecast to melt in the month of March during the next half of the decade in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
A warming Arctic could also disrupt weather systems and trigger more severe weather events, especially in northern regions of the world, Seabrook said.
Wetter weather is also forecast in the Northern Hemisphere over the next five winters, as well as wet periods in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel between May and September, while contrasting dry weather is forecast for this season in the Amazon.
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A strong El Niño is also predicted for this year, which could persist until 2027, raising global temperatures to possible record levels due to a warming Pacific Ocean, Seabrook said.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that typically lasts between nine and 12 months.
