The president (PT) gained an advantage over the senator (-RJ) in a second round simulation for the 2026 elections, according to the Meio Ideia survey released this Thursday (28).
According to the survey, Lula has 46.5% of voting intentions, compared to 41.4% for Flávio in this scenario. Three weeks earlier, the senator had 45.3% against 44.7% for the PT member.
The survey interviewed 1,500 people from Saturday (23) to Wednesday (27). The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under protocol BR-02918/2026.
In the first round, Lula appears with 38.5% and Flávio, with 31.5%. The scenario is completed with (), with 5.5%, (New), with 2.4%, and (Mission), with 2.1%. Lula had 40% in the previous round, while Flávio had 36%
The research also measured the impact of audios that associate the senator with the banker. Flávio asked the owner of Master for money to finance the film “Dark Horse”, about his father, the former president, Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
According to the survey, 60.4% of those interviewed said they had had some contact with the case. Another 10% heard about it only in passing, without details, and 18.2% didn’t hear about it at all.
Among voters, 44% said they had a worse opinion of Flávio after the episode was released, 30.8% said they had not changed their perception, and 14.5% reported an improvement in the senator’s image. Another 10.7% were unable to answer.
The survey shows that 57% think the case will harm the campaign a lot or a little, 24% believe it will have no impact, 6% think the senator will be helped by the “victimization” effect and 13% don’t know.
Almost half of those interviewed (48%) believe that the episode deserves investigation by the Federal Police and the Public Ministry.
In alternative second round scenarios, Lula leads against other names on the right, remaining stable above 45%. Ronaldo Caiado and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) are those closest to the PT member, with 40% each.
In the government’s assessment, the rate of excellent or good went from 31.5% to 35.6%, while the percentage of bad or terrible went from 46.3% to 40.7%.
The president’s approval was 46.6%, against 51.4% disapproval. At the beginning of May, the rates were 44% and 53%, respectively.
When asked whether Lula deserves to continue in office after 2026, 51.4% said no, while 45.6% said yes.
