The crisis caused by revelations about contacts between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and former banker Daniel Vorcaro began to affect strategic segments of the senator’s candidacy for the Presidency.
Meio/Ideia survey released this Thursday (28) shows that the biggest losses of support occurred precisely among groups considered central to a tight second round dispute.
According to the survey, Flávio lost 18.9 percentage points among voters with incomes above five minimum wages. Among those interviewed who identify as center-right, the drop was 18 points. In the electorate aged 16 to 24, the decline reached 15.7 points.
The movement occurs two weeks after the release of audios and messages related to the financing of the film Dark Horse, a production about Jair Bolsonaro associated with businessman Daniel Vorcaro, former controller of Banco Master.
The groups that reacted most negatively to the revelations are precisely those that could change the electoral balance, especially in an election that could be decided by less than 1% of voters.
Lula extends advantage
The survey also recorded relevant changes in electoral scenarios. In the first round, Lula now appears with 38.5% of voting intentions, while Flávio fell to 31.5%.
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In the previous round of the survey, released at the beginning of May, the PT member had 40%, against 36% for the PL senator.
The inversion also appeared in the second round simulation. Three weeks ago, Flávio led numerically in the direct confrontation with Lula by 45.3% to 44.7%. Now, the president has taken the lead with 46.5%, while the senator has fallen back to 41.4%.
The stimulated scenario also includes Ronaldo Caiado (5.5%), Romeu Zema (2.4%) and Renan Santos (2.1%).
Vorcaro wide wear case
The study also measured the electorate’s level of knowledge about the episode involving Vorcaro and the film Dark Horse. According to the survey, 60.4% of those interviewed said they had had some contact with the case. Of this total, 37.4% said they had seen or heard “a lot” about the subject.
The impact on the senator’s image appears negatively in the data. For 44% of those interviewed, the perception of Flávio worsened after the revelations. Another 30.8% said they had not changed their opinion, while 14.5% said they had started to see him in a more positive light.
The majority also believes that the episode will harm the PL pre-candidate electorally. According to the survey, 57% believe that the case will affect Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign a lot or a little.
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Furthermore, 48% defend that the relations between the senator and Daniel Vorcaro be subject to in-depth investigation by the Federal Police and the Public Ministry.
The Meio/Ideia survey interviewed 1,500 voters between the 23rd and 27th of May. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under protocol BR-02918/2026-BRASIL. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.
