Just hours after US special forces seized its dictator from Caracas on January 3, Donald Trump declared that she was the next to “fall”.
Since then, she has been lobbying Venezuela’s new leader – who wants to avoid being kidnapped like her predecessor – to cut off cheap supplies to Cuba. As the island suffers a blackout,
Cuba’s communist leaders are rigid. For nearly seven decades they have been imprisoning dissidents and impoverishing their countrymen. Ordinary Cubans struggle to buy food or medicine, while regime favors dominate the state-controlled economy and live in opulence. Cuba also poses a (mild) threat to US security; it allows Russia and China to operate monitoring stations less than 200km from Florida
Negotiations in the dark
The oil embargo has made Cubans even more unhappy than before. However, the regime is paying attention. He is negotiating. Some political prisoners have been released and a barrage of economic reforms has been announced.
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On March 16, the regime said it would allow Cubans living abroad to wholly own businesses in Cuba. But Trump and Marco Rubio, his Cuban-American secretary of state, often say they want much more: nothing less than regime change.
Now they are weighing their options. One of them is the use of military force. Spy drones fly over Cuba. On May 20, . On the same day, the US Department of Justice indicted Raul Castro, Cuba’s de facto leader. Rubio says the chances of a peace deal are “not high” and that Cuba cannot be fixed under the current political system. Asked whether America would use force to change the regime, he said Mr Trump would do “whatever it takes”.
The risk of a military operation
All of this is reminiscent of the escalation that preceded Trump’s operation in Venezuela, which he – with overconfidence – characterizes as a huge success. The threat of force may give him extra leverage at the negotiating table, but an actual military operation would be hugely risky and unlikely to improve the situation.
A quick, illegal invasion aimed at decapitating the regime might succeed, but then what? Cuba is not Venezuela. Its dictatorship is more deeply rooted and ideological. Perhaps Trump can replace top communists with more flexible leaders, but even the limited degree of control he has over Venezuela would be difficult to replicate in Havana.
A full-scale invasion is even less appealing. America could crush Cuba’s military, but could it build a better country? Its record of nation-building in the face of guerrilla warfare in other countries is poor. Few Cubans now have any memory of freedom. Any attempt to impose democracy by force would be time-consuming, fraught with danger, and likely doomed to failure.
The gradual transition
If not violence, then what? America could extend the oil embargo, causing more starvation and blackouts, hoping that desperate Cubans will turn against their leaders. But there is no organized political opposition. So many young people have left the country that Cuba has become the oldest country in the Americas. So far, most protests have been limited to rowdy pot rallies.
That leaves the least bad option on the table: pushing for a gradual transition. Some elements of a possible deal have already been made public. America would allow more oil to flow and provide $100 million in humanitarian aid to the Catholic Church and NGOs, bypassing the corrupt business empire of the Cuban military.
It would also provide free satellite internet access for every Cuban. This would be good in itself and could help create space for political opposition to emerge. For its part, the regime should release more prisoners, ease repression and open Cuba to private investment.
Huge challenges
Even if Cuban leaders agreed to such a deal, the challenges would remain enormous. Cuba is much poorer than Venezuela and does not have large oil reserves to attract foreign investors. Nor does it have the rule of law. Many Cuban-Americans would like to invest, but only when the communists who seized their properties are gone.
However, real economic reform could make a big difference. Tourism could increase rapidly if Americans were no longer banned from visiting the island. Agricultural land could be used more productively. The economic opening would probably have to precede the political one, which could take a long time.
If the Trump administration negotiates forcefully and smartly, it could do the Cubans a big favor. If he resorts to armed violence, he could make matters much worse. With any luck, Trump has learned this lesson from Iran.
