The recent drop of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in voting intention polls has drawn attention due to the electorate where it occurred.
The Meio/Ideia survey released this Thursday (28) showed that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) appears with 46.5% of voting intentions in a possible second round against Flávio Bolsonaro, who totals 41.4%.
According to the survey, the senator’s decline was more intense among voters with incomes above five minimum wages, young people aged 16 to 24 and people who identify as center-right.
According to analysts interviewed in Mapa de Risco, a policy program for the InfoMoneythe voters who moved the most away from the senator do not necessarily belong to the hard core of Bolsonarism, but to the segment that would be fundamental to expanding his candidacy beyond the traditional right-wing base.
The assessment helps to explain why the political impact of the Banco Master case generated concern within the campaign. More than losing support among historic Bolsonarists, Flávio began to face difficulties precisely with the electorate that had been making his candidacy nationally competitive.
“The center-right are those voters who are still willing to change their vote and who probably reject Lula and also reject Flávio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro,” said political scientist Graziella Testa.
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According to her, this is a very different electorate from that which automatically votes based on party or ideological identity.
“They are possibly voters who can still change. They are not those voters who are already crystallized in a political position.”
The most important voter in the election
Observation helps to understand why campaigns monitor the movements of this group so closely. In a scenario of consolidated polarization, both Lula and Flávio already have significant portions of the electorate that are relatively stabilized. The decisive space in the dispute is precisely among voters who are still moving between candidacies or who may migrate to indecision.
For Graziella, the recent behavior of research suggests that the impacts of the Master case appeared first in this segment.
“We are capturing the results of the Master scandal. We are capturing these effects now.”
This helps to explain why the drop recorded in some surveys occurred even without a significant rupture in the Bolsonarist base. More loyal voters tend to stay with the candidate for longer. Moderate sectors tend to react more quickly to episodes of political wear and tear.
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Neither Lula nor Bolsonaro
The center-right, described by the scientist, brings together voters who demonstrate resistance to the two traditional poles of the dispute. These are people who reject Lula, but who also have reservations about the more ideological Bolsonarism. Therefore, they represent an opportunity for candidacies that can convey moderation, economic predictability and institutional stability.
It was in this space that Flávio Bolsonaro had been advancing over the last few months. By trying to build a less confrontational image than his father’s, the senator managed to reduce differences in second-round polls and get closer to Lula in several surveys.
The problem is that this voter is also usually the most sensitive to issues related to integrity, governance and corruption.
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“It is exactly the voters who analyze the most cost-benefit before deciding to vote”, observed Graziella during the debate.
The analysis is that Flávio’s recovery does not only depend on mobilizing his traditional base, but mainly on winning back this intermediate electorate.
The strategy explains the campaign’s recent moves to reinforce economic agendas, expand the discourse of predictability and reduce direct association with more polarizing themes.
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At the same time, episodes such as the visit to Donald Trump and the resumption of the discourse on public security help to consolidate the Bolsonarist base, but do not necessarily resolve the problem among moderates.
