After a war flare-up that lasted 15 hours, they took a step back by declaring a ceasefire yesterday in order to give room to the diplomacy in which the .
However, nothing excludes that in the coming days, even hours, the conflict will be rekindled. Both sides are leaving open the possibility of repeated air and missile attacks, while at the same time trying to create or consolidate situations on its front, in order to achieve maximum leverage in the negotiation on Tehran’s nuclear program, the opening of the Straits of Hormuz and the partial lifting of sanctions against Iran.
Israel, which does not look kindly on a possible deal (which would allow the Iranian regime to survive), effectively undermines the Iran-US negotiation every time it bombs Lebanon and Hezbollah, while the pro-Iranian organization knows that every time it hits the Israeli occupation forces and northern Israel, it gives the government a handle for “retaliation”. which reach as far as Beirut. This happened in the previous days, but the new element was that Tehran carried out the threat of missile attacks against Israel, which responded with bombings inside Iran, until Trump intervened to cut off Netanyahu’s advance.
The two contradictory versions of Donald Trump
If we were to believe the American president – who now selectively answers the phone to reporters, close to abolishing the White House representatives – we would have to choose one of the two different versions he gave for the cessation of the missile barrage between Israel and Iran.
In the first version, Trump said that he stopped Netanyahu, while in the second version – late last night – when it was pointed out to him by the BBC’s Sarah Smith that Netanyahu had finally struck Iran, the American president replied that the Israeli planes had already taken off and were heading for Iran. “When I tell him to do something, he does it,” Trump said, implying that he didn’t … catch the first attack but stop the second.
The background of the phone calls
However, as far as the first wave of the Israeli attack is concerned, President Trump could not have been unaware. Israeli aircraft could not fly over Arab countries, within firing distance of Iran, without the knowledge of the operations center of the US forces in the Gulf, which was even involved in intercepting the missiles that had been launched by the Iranians earlier. Consequently, the Israeli retaliation was done with the “green light” or at least with the tolerance of the US.
According to the version shown by Israel’s Channel 12, the two leaders had consecutive telephone communications last Sunday and Monday. The most critical phone call is said to have been made on Monday afternoon, when Netanyahu ordered a further, massive attack. The planes were preparing to take off when Trump called, so Netanyahu ordered a suspension of the “massive strike.” It is assumed that in their previous communication, on Sunday, the American president had warned Netanyahu that if he escalated the attack “Israel will be left alone” and that Trump’s staff were left with the “impression” that the president had convinced his interlocutor to show restraint at least for a few days.
The rhetoric of victory from Tel Aviv and Tehran
In his three-minute speech on Monday afternoon, Netanyahu said that Israel only ceased fire on that front when Iran stopped first. “Israel has every right to self-defense and will exercise it whenever necessary, as I tell my friend President Trump,” Netanyahu said.
For its part, the Iranian government complains that Israel “was again forced to beg us for a ceasefire” while insisting on a comprehensive solution that would include Lebanon.
What does ignition mean?
It is of particular interest that the belligerents accuse each other, in almost identical terms, of “trying to impose a new equation” on Lebanon. Through the 15-hour flare-up, a new “model” of the crisis emerges: when Hezbollah strikes northern Israel, and Tel Aviv responds by bombing the group’s stronghold in Beirut (Dahiyeh), Iran will launch missiles at Israel.
The situation in southern Lebanon equates to the situation in northern Israel, and blows in Beirut will be equated with blows in Tel Aviv. Since Trump is “tying Netanyahu’s hands” in anticipation of an agreement with Tehran, Israel is at risk of suffering a second strategic defeat after failing to topple the Iranian regime, which is even tempted to take even greater risks, as American and Israeli analysts estimate.
Lebanon as a “negotiating paper” and the Trump ultimatum
At the same time, Iran and its protégés accuse the Beirut government of negotiating with the Israelis to grant sovereign rights in the southern part of the country in the form of “pilot zones” for the exclusion of Hezbollah and the deployment of Lebanese army forces. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun accused Tehran of using his country as a bargaining chip in talks with the Americans. “If Lebanon was our bargaining chip, then we would have reached an agreement a long time ago,” replied Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Last night Donald Trump declared that in two weeks the Gulf War will end with “total victory” for the US. He had said the same thing on April 7, when he announced a ceasefire, giving two weeks to complete an agreement with Iran. Israel is not participating in the negotiations
