The season begins on Thursday (11) under the typical threats of the North American summer: extreme heat, suffocating humidity and storms capable of postponing matches without prior notice.
Seasonal forecasts call for above-normal temperatures across much of the United States, while moisture flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico could fuel storms and severe weather during the first few weeks of the tournament.
While conditions for each match cannot be predicted that far in advance, sports scientists say there are clear weather risks for a summer World Cup spanning Canada, Mexico and the United States.
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The key measurement is not just air temperature, but wet-bulb temperature, which incorporates heat, humidity, sunlight, and wind to estimate heat stress on the body.
The World Weather Attribution warned that around a quarter of matches could be played in conditions that exceed recommended safety limits.
Chris Minson, professor of physiology and co-director of the Exercise and Environmental Physiology Laboratories at the University of Oregon, said elite players generate enormous internal heat even before taking the weather into account.
“Seventy-five percent of all the energy we use during exercise is converted into heat,” Minson told Reuters. “Only about 25% goes towards carrying out the exercise itself.”
In hot, sunny or humid conditions, the body’s normal cooling system begins to struggle. Humidity is a particular concern, as sweat only cools the body when it evaporates.
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“One of the hardest things for us is when the humidity is really high,” Minson said.
World Cup locations with high humidity include Houston, Miami, Dallas and Monterrey.
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Impact of climate change on performance
According to new research from Climate Central, climate change has increased the likelihood of temperatures high enough to affect players’ performance in 97 of the tournament’s 104 matches.
The biggest increase predicted is for the group stage match between Uruguay and Spain in Guadalajara on June 26, where researchers estimated a 70% probability that heat will harm performance – 37 percentage points more than it would be without climate change.
Ryan Calsbeek, a professor of biological sciences at Dartmouth College who studies how body type affects athletic performance in different climates, said heat and humidity can influence not only players’ well-being but also the pace and style of matches.
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“Higher temperatures and humidity will likely slow down games,” he said. “When athletes need to perform for an extended period, they simply cannot balance the explosive power of their fast-twitch muscle fibers with the long-duration aerobic effort of a 90-plus minute match in heat and humidity.”
Nearly half of all matches face at least a 50% chance of temperatures above 28 degrees Celsius — a threshold associated with decreased speed, distance traveled and recovery time.
