The Institute Real Time Big Data released this Thursday (11) a new survey with three scenarios about the race to Senate by Pernambuco. The former federal deputy Marília Arraes (PDT) leads two of them and has a technical tie with Miguel Coelho (União Brasil).
In the first scenario simulated by the institute, Marília leads with 26% of voting intentions and is followed by the senator Humberto Costa (PT), which has 19% for the second vacancy to the Upper House. Technically tied with Costa, appears Mendonça Filho (PL), which adds up 16% and is also tied for margin of error with Túlio Gadelha (PSD) e Eduardo da Fonte (PP), which respectively have 13% e 12%. Paulo Rubem (Network) closes the list with 4%.
Those who would vote for blank or null add up 4%while the undecided, 6%.
In the second scenario tested, Marília appears with 25%numerically ahead, but technically tied with Miguel Coelho (União Brasil), which adds up 21%. Next, come Mendonça Filhocom 16%, Humberto Costacom 15%e Tulio Gadelhacom 12%, all technically tied for third place. Paulo Rubem close the list again with 4%.
Those who would vote for blank or null add up 3%while the undecided, 4%.
In the last simulated scenario, Marília score 28%greater advantage between the scenarios. Then come Humberto Costacom 19%, Mendonça Filhocom 18%e Tulio Gadelhacom 15%all technically tied. Fernando Dueire (PSD), with 5%e Paulo Rubemcom 4%close the list.
Voters who would vote for blank or null add up 4%while the undecided, 7%.
Methodology
A Real Time Big Data research interviewed 1,600 voters of Pernambuco, between the days June 9th and 10th. The margin of error for the survey is two percentage pointsmore or less, with a confidence interval of 95%. The research was carried out with resources from the institute itself and is registered in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the protocol PE-09426/2026.
