Series A, B, C, D, billion-dollar IPO and party at Nasdaq. The step enshrined by American venture capital became a guide around the world, but for investors gathered in a panel at the Web Summit Rioinsisting on this roadmap is precisely what keeps the Brazilian ecosystem stuck in the winter that has been dragging on since 2022.
For Marcello Gonçalves, partner at DOMO.VCspring remains without a date to reach Brazilian venture capital. “I’m feeling a bit like Game of Thrones. I’m not seeing any rays of sunshine appear, at least until the elections. I swear at 15%, short-term investor mentality. Brazil today is not easy to think about long-term business, like venture capital”, said Marcello.
According to Marcello, a veteran of the local market, the country has recorded more delistings than openings in recent years. “M&A is over, and research shows that the average sales value of companies in Brazil is between R$200 million and R$300 million. But there are still many players in our market using the American playbook, thinking about series A, B, C and D. But who does series C and D in Brazil? Series A is difficult, series B is almost impossible, C and D don’t exist, and Brazil doesn’t even have a stock market”, he added, without mincing words.
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In turn, the partner of the Spectra InvestimentosFrederico Wiesel, brought a counterpoint. In the northern hemisphere, it looks like spring is returning — at least for those with AI in pitching. “Winter came in Latin America and in the United States as well. But here it persists, and there it has already ended. For AI native companies, it’s been a long time since it’s been winter. The wind is blowing very strong there. But this trend hasn’t come here yet”, said Frederico.
In this background excitement in the US AI scene, even Brazil has been put on the back burner. “We talked to some global funds and what they said is: why should I care (about Brazil)? Why worry about Latin America when there is so much happening in the United States?”, reported Fred, remembering that it was precisely these funds that financed the growth rounds here.
In fact, global venture capital broke a historic record in the first quarter of 2026. Around US$300 billion was invested, according to data from Crunchbase. Brazil ended 2025 with US$4.5 billion raised, a 13% drop in volume and a 22% drop in the number of rounds — and less than half of this amount came from equity rounds.
Even so, the double rule has already reached local valuations. “We even joke: if it has AI, it’s 10 times the revenue; if it doesn’t, it’s 4,” said Marcello, who, even so, preaches caution in the race: “It’s very difficult to know what Claude or ChatGPT will kill in a month.”
The Brazilian way
For Marcello Gonçalves, a possible way for Brazilian venture capital to find its spring is not to wait for an unlikely repeat of 2020 and 2021, but to find its own way of investing and, even, being aware of its own size. “It doesn’t make any sense for Brazil to have 120 early stage funds. The Brazilian blitzscaling model doesn’t exist, there’s no point in pushing money. What works is constant growth, resilience and margin”, he stated.
In the investor’s view, the route adjustment has already started to appear in theses such as Cloud9 Capitalof bigger checks for bigger stakes right at the early stage. “I understand what he is doing: he is giving the company much more runway, knowing that the future is very doubtful here. Brazil is discovering its VC model, which will be different from the United States, Israel and Mexico. The market is entering the adjustment phase, which will precede the spring season”, he projected.
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