According to the new survey by the Real Time Big Data released this Tuesday (16), Guilherme Melts (PP), Simone Tebet (PSB) and Marina Silva (Rede) lead the race for the Senate in the state of São Paulo.
There were three scenarios simulated by the institute. In the first of them, the former Secretary of Public Security of São Paulo, Guilherme Derrite, leads with 17%in a three-way technical draw with the former Minister of Planning, Simone Tebetwhich scores 16%; and the former Minister of the Environment Marina Silvacom 14%.
Marina also appears technically tied with Ricardo Salles (New), which has 12%; e André do Prado (PL), com 10%. Paulinho da Força (Solidarity) closes the list, with 7%.
Those who would vote for blank or null in this scenario add up 11%while the undecided, 13%.
In a second scenario, with Márcio França (PSB) in place of Marina Silva, Derrite e Tebet tie with 17% of voting intentions each. The two pre-candidates are followed by another tie between Ricardo Salles e Márcio Françaboth with 12%. In addition to the tie, the two candidates still appear technically tied with André do Prado e Paulinho da Forçawhich have 10% e 8%respectively.
Those who would vote for null or blank add up 11%while the undecided, 13%.
In the third and final scenario simulated by the institute, this time with Márcio França in place of Simone Tebet, Guilherme Melts appears technically tied with Marina Silva. The former secretary scores 17%while the former minister does 15%. Next, Ricardo Salles e Márcio França tie again, with 12% each. They repeat the same technical draw scenario, with André do Pradowhich adds 10%e Paulinho da Forçawhich ends the list with 8%.
Voters who would vote for blank or null appear with 12%while the undecided, 14%.
Methodology
A Real Time Big Data interviewed 2.000 voters throughout the state of São Paulo, between the days June 13th and 15th. The survey’s margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a confidence interval of 95%.
The research was carried out with resources from the institute itself and is registered in the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the protocol SP-09734/2026.
Read the full research
