The entity warns that the peak of infections has not yet been reached and that the lack of data hides the real size of the epidemic
The Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo could last for another year and has not yet reached its peak of cases, according to an alert released this Tuesday (16.Jun.2026) by the IFRC (International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent). The organization attributes the concern to insufficient diagnostic capacity, which makes it difficult to monitor the true extent of the outbreak.
The current outbreak is caused by Bundibugyofor which there are no approved vaccines or treatments. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo declared a state of outbreak on May 15, which led the (World Health Organization) to activate the maximum level of international health alert two days later. The virus has already crossed the border and Uganda, which has 19 confirmed cases and 2 deaths.
DATA SHOCK AND UNDER-NOTIFICATION
Monitoring the epidemic on the ground exposes a strong statistical discrepancy between international entities. The official balance sheet of the Congolese authorities reports more than 650 confirmed cases and more than 130 deaths. On the other hand, the most recent epidemiological report from the WHO, with data computed up to June 14, shows a cumulative total of 808 laboratory-confirmed cases and 192 deaths, which represents a fatality rate of 23.8%.
According to the WHO, the progress is alarming: in just one week, there was an increase of 258 new cases (an increase of 60%) and 91 new deaths (an increase of 90.1%). For MSF, this disparity and the fluctuation of official indicators confirm that official data do not reflect the real dimension of the outbreak. The humanitarian organization warns that the numbers probably represent only a fraction of the reality, masked by the extreme difficulty of testing.
INFECTED WITHOUT MONITORING
The disease is mainly concentrated in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo, spreading across the provinces of Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu. According to WHO mapping, the virus has already spread to 31 health areas. The Ituri region is the main epicenter, concentrating around 95% of notifications. According to MSF emergency medical coordinator in DRC, Kate White, most local treatment centers are overwhelmed.
“Many of our patients arrive at an advanced stage of the disease and the majority have never been identified or monitored as a contact before seeking care”revealed the coordinator, highlighting the blackout in tracking possible new infections. WHO epidemiological investigations confirm that transmission had already been occurring silently in the community for several weeks before the first cases were validated and reported in the new districts.
LABORATORY BOTTLENECK
Precarious infrastructure and insecurity caused by chronic armed conflicts in the east of the country make epidemiological control unfeasible. Despite the arrival of hundreds of rapid testing kits developed specifically for the strain Bundibugyoaccess to these resources is limited in unstable areas.
In North Kivu, for example, there is only one laboratory available to analyze blood samples. Due to the lack of an automated system for sending reports, processing and delivering results to health units can take almost a week. MSF warns that, without rapid and widely distributed tests, it is impossible to detect cases early enough to contain the contagion.
DISTRUST AND AGGRESSION
IFRC head of operations, Bruno Michon, highlighted that misinformation and resistance from local communities are the main obstacles to stopping contagion. In recent weeks, Red Cross volunteers working in safe burials have been targets of insults, threats and physical attacks during fieldwork.
The spokesperson emphasized the weight of local rejection in combating the health crisis. “Trust is not a secondary aspect of the Ebola response. Trust is fundamental. Without trust, we cannot detect cases in time”said Michon.
MSF’s emergency coordinator in the country, Frederic Lai Manantsoa, added that the window for action to control the epidemic is narrowing and called for a methodological change in dialogue with the civilian population. “Implementing activities and explaining the disease is not enough to build trust – we need to listen to people’s concerns, and communities must help shape the response”he assessed.
HEALTH SYSTEM IN COLLAPSE
The Ebola health crisis overlaps with decades of forced population displacement and chronic gaps in the Congolese health system. Humanitarian organizations emphasize the importance of not stifling routine medical care in favor of the exclusive response to the epidemic, since maintaining basic services helps to strengthen surveillance against Ebola in communities.
“Pregnant women still need maternal care, children still need vaccinations, and patients still need treatment for malaria and cholera.”warned Kate White. MSF currently operates in 16 of the 26 provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, providing surgical support to war wounded, treating malnutrition and combating parallel outbreaks of preventable diseases such as measles and cholera.
