Michael Burry, the investor famous for inspiring the book and film “The Big Bet”considered operating sold at SpaceX, a space company controlled by Elon Musk.
SpaceX went public last week, and its shares have already risen by more than 25%. Since then, the company’s market value has soared to close to $3 trillioneven surpassing Amazon, owned by Jeff Bezos, at one point.
But for every investor excited about Musk’s ambition to create a human colony on Mars, there is someone wondering whether this plan will actually get off the ground. Burry, in his style, raised precisely this doubt.
In a post on Substack, the analyst known for predicting the collapse of the real estate market before the 2008 crisis stated that he analyzed different ways to bet against Musk’s company.
“I have no position in SpaceX at this time. Neither short nor, cough cough, long,” Burry wrote on Tuesday, according to CNBC. The shortest puts — expiring in June 2027, for example — cost about US$ 13with the action around US$ 212reported the investor. A put maturing in December 2026 would cost approximately US$ 6,75.
Burry said he was “tempted” by this second option, “but no thanks.”
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He is not convinced by the valuation of Musk’s new bet, which he described as “fundamentally a small space company, a niche telecom, a problematic social media company and a kind of CoreWeave light”.
Before the IPO, investors had access to a preview of the company’s accounts through the form S-1which showed an increase in revenue, but also an acceleration in losses. How to Fortune previously reported, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) has been growing at a strong pace — annual revenue reached US$18.7 billion in 2025, an increase of around 33% about the US$14.1 billion 2024 —, but losses also increased.
Em March 31SpaceX accumulated a deficit of US$41.3 billion and recorded a net loss of US$4.27 billion in the first quarter of this year, compared to US$528 million in the same period of the previous year.
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A Fortune also cited analysis by David Trainer, from New Constructs, according to which almost 80% of the capital expected from the IPO was already committed. From the S-1, Trainer concluded that US$62.8 billionor 78% of the US$80 billion designed, were already destined for insiders and suppliers. According to the analysis, SpaceX committed to directing more than three-quarters of the resources to third parties, Valor Equity Partners, Musk’s X Corp., xAI investors, to pay debts, and Echostar, for the closing of the spectrum acquisition.
Bet against Musk
Musk is known for playing on several fronts at the same time — with Tesla, SpaceX, the social network
The rivalry with Bill Gates is a well-known example. Last year, Musk revived an old discussion by claiming that Gates still maintained a “crazy” short position against Tesla.
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“If Gates hasn’t completely wiped out the insane short position he’s held against Tesla for like eight years, he’d better do it soon,” Musk wrote in November.
The malaise began in 2022, when Gates bet against Tesla shares in a position of about US$500 millionwhich earned him messages from Musk and “super aggressive” behavior, as Gates later reported to biographer Walter Isaacson. At the time, Musk asked if Gates really had a short position — which was confirmed — and Gates even said he wanted to work with the businessman on philanthropic initiatives.
According to reports, Musk responded: “Sorry, I can’t take your climate philanthropy seriously when you have a huge short position against Tesla, the company doing the most to combat climate change.”
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Burry may even feel compelled, at some point, to bet against SpaceX — but Musk has shown in the past that he doesn’t usually react well to this type of movement.
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