More than half of weight-loss pens come from the informal market, says study

The informal market for GLP-1-based medications, which help control blood glucose and promote satiety and weight loss, may account for more than half of the doses consumed in Brazil. The estimate is from a study by Scanntech, a data intelligence company for the retail and consumer goods industry.

Also according to the survey, considering the sum of the formal market and the estimated consumption of the informal market, the use of these medicines grew 239% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of the previous year.

To estimate the size of the informal market for GLP-1-based medicines, Scanntech evaluated the evolution of syringe sales in pharmacies and constructed a historical baseline associated with insulin consumption. The growth in sales of this injectable application material observed above the expected trend for insulin consumption was used as an indicator of the use of medicines purchased in ampoules, outside formal marketing channels.

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Priscila Ariani, Marketing Director at Scanntech, explains that, although it is not possible to directly measure the informal market, it is possible to seek relationships. “We observed in pharmacies a growth in sales of insulin syringes much higher than what would be expected just from the evolution of insulin consumption. This surplus allows us to estimate that, possibly, more than 50% of the doses of GLP-1 in circulation in the country, since the last quarter of 2025, are being consumed outside the formal market in pharmacies”, he explains.

To deepen understanding of the penetration of GLP-1 in the country, Scanntech carried out quantitative research, with more than 2 thousand adults, representative of the population. The survey evaluated aspects such as penetration, profile of these consumers, motivations for use and willingness to start using in the face of a possible price reduction, already expected due to the patent loss. The results show that 6% of Brazilian adults already use these medications.

From a financial point of view, 87.4% of people who use the medicine pay for the treatment out of their own pocket: 72% spend up to R$600 per month, while 26.5% do not have any type of discount and 39.2% say they commit a significant portion of their income to the medicine. The average price mentioned is below the official price of reference brands, which may reinforce the presence of an informal market.

The data declared by the interviewees also helps to understand the dimension of this scenario. In quantitative research with consumers, only 5.2% of users claim to use compounded medicines. In the study that estimates the total consumption of GLP-1 based on market data, the results indicate that the informal channel may represent more than 50% of the doses in circulation in the country.

The difference between the results of the two analyzes does not represent an inconsistency. While the research captures the responses declared by consumers, the retail study estimates consumption based on the behavior observed in the market, suggesting that some users may not declare or are unaware that their medicine originates outside a formal supply chain.

The survey also shows that 47.3% of respondents would be more interested in starting or resuming treatment with GLP-1 given the entry of new options on the market. This is a public with a consumption profile close to that of current LPG-1 users, marked by a greater frequency of consumption outside the home, delivery and categories associated with indulgence.

The patent loss and the recent arrival of new medicines on the market, sold from R$452, represent an important reduction in the financial access barrier, boosting both the formalization of consumption and the expansion of the user base.

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Impact on supermarkets

The advancement of weight-loss pens is also beginning to be reflected – in a timid way – in food retail, according to the survey. After isolating the growth in consumption of medicines from external factors such as income, employment, debt and climatic conditions, the analysis estimates that the use of medicines based on GLP-1 results in a reduction of 0.49% per year in the total volume of food sold in Brazilian supermarkets, with a more intense impact on baskets associated with indulgence, with emphasis on drinks, which record a decline of 0.91% per year. Packaged perishables (-0.66%), grocery (-0.53%) and basic grocery (-0.43%) are also among the worst performers.

Among the categories, beer (-1.03%), snacks and snacks (-0.82%), chocolate (-0.72%), cookies (-0.63%), chewing gum (-0.55%), soft drinks (-0.55%) and candies and lollipops (-0.51%) lead the declines caused by the growing adoption of GLP-1-based medicines in Brazil.

The research also reveals that GLP-1 users are heavy consumers in almost all other categories. Compared to non-users of GLP-1, they consume four to five times more beer, spirits, delivery, restaurants and fast food, in addition to spending two to three times more on gym memberships, supplements and vitamins. This profile helps to explain the impact of GLP-1 on retail, as the reduction in consumption occurs precisely among historically more intense consumers.

Motivations for use

The data indicate that the motivation for using GLP-1 goes beyond medical indications. Although combating obesity is the main declared motivation (29.5%), rapid weight loss (28.6%), appetite control (23.8%) and weight maintenance (24.1%) appear next, above other health issues, such as reducing cardiovascular risk (22.8%) and type 2 diabetes (16.7%).

GLP-1 consumption is predominant by age, income and gender. The largest concentration of consumers is among women aged 25 to 34, with a monthly income between R$22 thousand and R$32 thousand. Consumers over 50 years of age have, statistically, the lowest consumption of GLP-1 and the highest consumption of fresh foods in their daily diet.

The period of use tends to be short. Of those currently using GLP-1, 66.5% have been on treatment for five months or less. Furthermore, 63.7% of current GLP-1 consumers declare low or very low intention to continue.

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Winning sectors

The impact is not just focused on losses. The numbers point to growth in categories such as fresh food (+11.5%), gym and well-being (+9.6%), protein supplements (+9.1%), sparkling and still water (+7.9%) and vitamins and supplements (+7.4%). Among users, 29% reported loss of lean mass, a figure that helps contextualize the growth observed in proteins and supplements.

“One of the most relevant aspects observed in the research is that part of the changes in eating habits persist even after the end of the use of GLP-1. Among current users, 54% say that healthy eating is a priority, while the rates recorded among former users remain above those observed among those who have never used the medication”, says Priscila.