The temporary truce between the and the is receiving serious shocks, putting in immediate danger the diplomatic efforts to end the four-month war conflict. Despite the scheduled arrival of the two countries’ negotiating teams in Qatar, Tehran issued a clear statement of distancing on Monday, clarifying that there is no planned meeting with the US side.
The new diplomatic thriller was sparked after the weekend’s fierce missile attacks, which tested the limits of the fragile June 17 accord. Washington has accused Iran of launching missile and drone strikes against at least two merchant ships, responding by bombing Iranian military facilities. Tehran retaliated early Sunday, firing missiles at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
Diplomatic divide in the foreground
The composition of the American mission underlines the importance that the White House attaches to the developments. US President Donald Trump chose to send his son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff to Doha to lead the talks. On the other hand, Iran, although sending a technical delegation to Qatar, categorically denies any contact.
Tehran’s position: “We will not hold any negotiation meeting at any level with the American side in the coming days”the representative of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmail Baghai, categorically stated, adding that the presence of the Iranian mission has “nothing to do” with the arrival of the American officials.
Despite public denials, information from diplomatic sources cited by , indicate that on Tuesday a meeting will be sought in Doha with the sole purpose of managing the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, technical teams from the two states are expected to meet separately with mediators from Qatar and Pakistan.
Speaking from the Oval Office, Donald Trump appeared composed, stating: “The meeting in Doha may or may not be important. We’ll find out,” while insisting the U.S. is “winning militarily.”
Oil above 100 dollars and a political “headache” for Trump
The geopolitical crisis has caused a heart attack in global energy flows. After the initial joint US-Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes — was virtually wiped out. This pushed crude oil prices above $100 a barrel, fueling global inflation.
The development is putting intense domestic political pressure on Donald Trump ahead of crucial November congressional elections that will decide control of Congress. Some Republicans criticize the president for waging a war without legislative authorization, while Democrats are firing back.
Opposition criticism: “After dragging America into a costly war, the Trump administration still can’t cite a single thing that Americans have gained in return,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said after a briefing by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, adding that Iran stands to reap billions by maintaining its influence in the region.
The economic exchange and the Lebanese front
Amidst this explosive atmosphere, Iranian President Massoud Pezheskian announced that 6 out of a total of 12 billion dollars of Iranian assets that had been frozen in Qatar were to be released and returned to the country. Pezeskian called the 14-point memorandum — which provides exemptions from US sanctions on Iranian oil — a “great victory for the Iranian people.” For its part, Tehran is trying to impose fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, warning with a blockade any that deviate.
The regional instability is further complicated by the attitude of Israel, which is staying away from the talks and distancing itself from the agreement. The tension is also directly affecting Lebanon, with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri (an ally of Iran-backed Hezbollah) openly expressing doubts about a separate US-brokered Lebanon-Israel peace deal.
France is also trying to enter the de-escalation game, with President Emmanuel Macron declaring that he is working with Oman to de-mine the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, immediately rejected European involvement, clarifying in a post on “X” that demining is Iran’s sole responsibility and warning Paris not to complicate the situation.
