The president (PT) has a positive 31% and negative assessment of 40%, according to CNT/MDA survey released on Monday (8). In June, the positive evaluation was 29%. Negative assessment remained with 40%.
The survey listened to 2,002 people between September 3 and 6, in 140 municipalities of all states, including the Federal District. The margin of error is two percentage points for more and less.
The approval of the president’s personal performance was 44%, and 49.3% disapprove of his attitudes. In the June survey, Lula had 41% approval in this regard. The disapproval in the same field was 53% in June to 49.3% this month. In February, it was 55%.
Lula’s approval is higher among women, older people, with lower income and Catholics.
President Lula leads voting intentions in the first round and would overcome candidates in six different second round scenarios. The survey points to a technical draw in only one of them, with (.).
If they were today, Lula leads the first round with 36.2%, Bolsonaro has 29.7%and would be third with 9.6%.
In a scenario with the governor of, (Republicans), and without Bolsonaro, Tarcisio has 17.1% of voting intentions and would be second in the first round. In this case, Lula would lead with 35.8%.
In spontaneous response, when the voter says the name that comes to mind, Lula leads with 27.5%. In second place comes Bolsonaro, with 21.1%. In the June 2025 survey version, the current president had 23% voting intentions, and Bolsonaro, 21%. Tarcisio appears with 2.2% intention of votes in spontaneous.
Second round
The current president would win the second round of elections in six different scenarios if the choice was today. In one of them, however, he would have a technical draw with Ciro Gomes (39.4% x 36%).
Lula would win Bolsonaro by 45.7% to 37.7%, respectively, from Tarcisio (43.9% x 37.6%), Romeu Zema (45% x 30.7%), Junior Mouse (43.4% x 36.7%) and Ronaldo Caiado (44.8% x 30.4%).
This is the first time President Lula has spent former President Jair Bolsonaro compared to the last two editions of the survey.
Lula also does better than Bolsonaro when the question is which candidate would not vote at all. Of the total, 50% said they did not vote for Lula and 58% said they would not vote to Jair Bolsonaro. Tarcísio de Freitas got 47%.
Spontaneous rejection for president shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied: Lula with 40.2% and Bolsonaro with 40.1%. Tarcisio is rejected by 2.2% and the lowest rejection is 1.1%. Do not know/did not answer add up to 11.7%.
JAIR BOLSONARO JUDGMENT
According to the survey, 36% consider that January 8 was an attempted coup, 29.5% think it was a protest that came out of control, and 20% consider that they were vandalism acts in isolation.
About the trial outcome of the coup plot, which starts on Tuesday (9), 38.2% consider that Bolsonaro will be convicted and that this is fair; 19.4% believe that he will be unjustly condemned; 17.5% say he will be acquitted and consider it fair; and 11.4% think he will be unjustly acquitted.
Grouped, 58% believe he will be convicted and 29% believe he will be acquitted.
Regarding court, 49.6% believe that the correct thing is Bolsonaro to be convicted and 36.9% believe that the correct thing is Jair Bolsonaro to be acquitted. Of the total, 32.2% believe that he must serve the sentence at home, and 31% in penitentiary. After any conviction, 39.4% believe it will increase even more polarization in the country.
