Professor of International Relations at the University of Oxford Richard Kaplana specialist in conflict management, talks to “Vima” about Gaza, Ukraine and the rise of China.
Is there a real risk that the war in Ukraine will spread to Europe after the incident with the invasion of Russian unmanned aircraft in Poland?
“While there is a possibility that the war on being spreading in Europe after the invasion of unmanned aircraft, there is no” real danger “at the moment. Every effort will be made by the other NATO states, including the United States, and by Russia to ensure that the conflict does not escalate, because the danger will be a confrontation between nuclear forces, which all parties want to avoid.
However, they will test the credibility of Article 5 of NATO, forcing the alliance to prove whether and how it can respond decisively to low -level, persistent challenges without the situation escalating in full -scale war. “
After the Trump -Putin meeting in August, expectations for the prospect of peace in Ukraine were set. In your opinion, how willing is Kremlin and Putin personally serving such an expectation?
“The question is not whether we want this peace itself, but what kind of peace and at what price. He is willing to agree on a peace that is equivalent to capitulation of Ukraine – in other words, in a situation that requires Ukraine to resign from territories that Russia has violently occupied.
At the same time, it requires Ukraine to essentially give up as a state from the beginning of sovereignty. Such terms would not be a genuine peace, but rather the legalization of the conquest of a part of Ukraine through coercion. “
What will be the consequences for Palestine and the prospect of peace after the Israeli blow to Qatar?
“For the ceasefire and the efforts of the release of hostages, which were already vulnerable to the prospect of collapse. The question now is whether Qatar will continue to play a role in seeking to mediate Israel and. If Qatar takes a step back, the space for meaningful mediation can be further shrunk, leaving fewer international agents eager or capable of filling the gap.
The biggest question is whether there is room for diplomacy or whether Israel will be increasingly based on military “solutions” to pursue its objectives. Such an approach is in danger of deepening it, exacerbating regional tensions and further undermining the prospects for a sustainable political settlement. “
Israel’s military operations in Gaza, and in particular what is happening against the civilian Palestinian population, fall within the definitions of crimes against humanity and genocide? Do you see some political hope in the long run in order to achieve peace in the region?
“Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip constitute extremely serious violations of international humanitarian law, they fall within the definitions of war crimes, crimes against humanity and, according to many respected lawyers, of genocide.
Nevertheless, I see reasons to hope, I believe that peace in the area is possible. Hope is also in the fact that the tendency of international public opinion is directed against Israel, which could ultimately lead to the withdrawal of critical diplomatic support, military aid and economic cooperation, thereby creating pressure on Tel Aviv for substantial policy.
The imminent recognition of Palestine by a number of states with a strong international presence gives a first tone. This is, of course, a very fragile hope. However, there can be no viable resolution of the Palestinian issue without accepting the Palestinian right to self -determination. “
Given your experience in resolving conflict, I would like your opinion on the UN role. We see a degradation of the organization’s role, with some states directly attacking UN services. Is there room for optimism about his future?
“We are at a turning point in the history of the United Nations. Geopolitical competition makes the body ineffective. Meanwhile, the United States withdraws vital economic and political support from the UN.
The scope for optimism lies in the finding that the vast majority of states in the world recognize the organization’s importance for maintaining an international rules -based class and that the weakening of this order will have extensive negative effects on state actors. “
On September 3, Beijing hosted a magnificent military parade. Do you share the view that it was more about a global power promotion and what are China’s ambitions?
“Indeed, on a live broadcast and on a global scale, but also a demonstration that China seeks to be a counterweight to the US -dominated international order. China’s great ambition is to change its own role and become a client and rules modest and therefore to play a decisive role in shaping the world order. “
In Europe there is a belief that the EU and its leadership are unprepared for the new Polypolian world, still subject to US domination. What is your opinion?
“Europe remains – as it used to be – a slave partner of the United States, since it still depends on them for global leadership and strategic support. As this kind of support has been reduced by the Trump government and Europe’s influence on the world scene is declining, Epirus is becoming increasingly vulnerable in the midst of a fragmented international class. “
