MANAMA (Reuters) – A de facto division of the Gaza Strip into an area controlled by Israel and another governed by Hamas is increasingly likely, according to several sources, as efforts to advance U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war beyond a ceasefire face difficulties.
Six European officials with direct knowledge of efforts to implement the next phase of the plan told Reuters that it has effectively been stalled and that reconstruction now appears to be limited to the area controlled by Israel.
This could lead to years of separation, they warned.
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Under the first phase of the plan, which came into force on October 10, the Israeli military currently controls 53% of Mediterranean territory, including much of its agricultural land, along with Rafah in the south, parts of Gaza City and other urban areas.
Nearly all of Gaza’s 2 million people are huddled in tent encampments and in the rubble of destroyed cities in the rest of Gaza, which is under Hamas control.
Reuters drone footage taken in November shows destruction northeast of Gaza City following Israel’s last strike before the ceasefire, following months of previous bombings.
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The area is now divided between Israeli and Hamas control.
The next stage of the plan calls for Israel to further withdraw from the so-called yellow line agreed in Trump’s plan, along with the establishment of a transitional authority to govern Gaza, the deployment of a multinational security force intended to replace the Israeli military, the disarmament of Hamas and the beginning of reconstruction.
But the plan provides no timelines or implementation mechanisms. Meanwhile, Hamas refuses to disarm, Israel rejects any involvement by the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, and uncertainty persists about the multinational force.
‘We are still working out ideas,’ Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said at a security conference in Manama this month. ‘Everyone wants this conflict to end, we all want the same end. The question is: how do we make it work?’
Without a major effort by the United States to break the impasse, the yellow line appears set to become the de facto border dividing Gaza indefinitely, according to 18 sources, including six European officials and a former U.S. official familiar with the negotiations.
The United States has drafted a UN Security Council resolution that would grant the multinational force and a transitional governing body a two-year mandate. But ten diplomats said governments remained hesitant to send troops.
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European and Arab nations, in particular, would likely not participate if responsibilities went beyond peacekeeping and meant direct confrontation with Hamas or other Palestinian groups, they said.
US Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s influential son-in-law Jared Kushner said last month that reconstruction funds could quickly begin flowing into the Israeli-controlled area, even without moving to the next stage of the plan, with the idea of creating model zones for some Gazans to live.
Such U.S. proposals suggest that the fragmented reality on the ground risks becoming “locked into something much more protracted,” said Michael Wahid Hanna, U.S. program director at the International Crisis Group think tank.
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A State Department spokesperson said that while there had been ‘tremendous progress’ in advancing Trump’s plan, there was more work to be done, without answering questions about whether reconstruction would be limited to the area controlled by Israel.
