IGOR GIELOW
Israeli forces have begun an air campaign to try to destroy Syria’s arsenal of ballistic missiles and chemical weapons, aiming to prevent them from falling into the hands of jihadist terrorists who participated in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Furthermore, the Jewish State invaded the demilitarized area on the border with Syria, adjacent to the Golan Heights, occupied in 1967 by Israel.
After 54 years, the Assad family dictatorship fell this Sunday (8), victim of a 12-day devastating advance by forces led by HTS (Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, in its Arabic acronym), a group formed from the terrorist network Al Qaeda .
On Sunday itself, Israeli attack planes attacked three chemical weapons depots in the Damascus region, the Syrian capital. Throughout his 24-year rule, particularly the 13-year civil war, Assad has employed these proscribed weapons against rivals.
This Monday, explosions were recorded in two other locations associated with the production of chemical weapons in the Syrian capital, in addition to the bombing of military positions in a port in Latakia (northwest). According to Reuters, there were attacks on several air bases as well.
At the UN, the country’s mission said it did not want to get involved in the crisis and that it was only seeking to protect its citizens.
Earlier, Minister Israel Katz (Defense) had said that his forces will target “heavy strategic weapons throughout Syria, including surface-to-air missiles, air defense systems, surface-to-surface missiles, cruise missiles, long-range rockets and coastal missiles.”
Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said his country is not interested in “Syria’s internal affairs” but rather in protecting Israelis. “That is why we will attack strategic systems, for example chemical weapons or remaining long-range missiles and rockets, so that they do not fall into the hands of extremists.”
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London), Assad had a varied stock of missiles, rockets and launchers of Soviet origin, and perhaps some more recent Russian material. The most dangerous for Israel are ballistic models with a range of up to 500 km. But the condition of this arsenal after the civil war is uncertain.
With this, the Jewish state seeks to face the most obvious side effect of its campaign against regional adversaries supported by arch-rival Iran, a war triggered by the Palestinian Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.
The dismantling of the terrorist group in the Gaza Strip and, as of September this year, its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, left Assad and Iran exposed. Syria served as a land link between Tehran and its agents to the west, and was a weapons smuggling route for years.
In this sense, the fall of the dictatorship is more than welcome in Tel Aviv. The problem is that, as happened in Libya, the power vacuum after the end of an oppressive regime can lead to the proliferation of different threats.
As HTS tries to sell itself as moderate, but has terrorist DNA and is classified as such in the West and even by the UN, the risk to Israel is not negligible. Not so much because of its leadership, which seems to be guided by Türkiye, but in the numerous factions that dispute internal power in an uncertain way.
The Jewish State has a border demilitarized by international agreement since 1974 with Syria, resulting from Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights in 1967. The 400 km² territory is neuralgic, and has the presence of a UN force.
Saar said a “limited and temporary force” of soldiers was being deployed in the area, where Israeli military bulldozers broke through fences this morning. Egypt condemned the action, saying it aimed at “further occupation of Syrian lands.” Saudi Arabia says the move puts “Syrian security at risk”.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, where the fragile ceasefire between Tel Aviv and Hezbollah is still in force, four Israeli soldiers were killed in the south of the country while disarming the group’s explosives in a tunnel this Monday.
Assad’s fall generated a curious repositioning among Tehran’s allies. Hezbollah said that Syria is going through a dangerous moment, while Hamas congratulated “the Syrian people for achieving their desire for freedom and justice” – and called for continued support for the Palestinian cause.
The Israeli dilemma is not very different from the world’s expectations regarding the post-Assad future, who fled with his family to Moscow. The fear of a terrorist outbreak is visible.
This Monday, the German Chancellery said it had hopes that jihadism, that is, holy war on an Islamic basis, by HTS would be limited to Syrian territory. He also recalled that the Idlib region, which was governed by the group, “is not exactly a paradise”.
The UN, in turn, tried to express more optimism. Celebrating the end of Assad’s abusive regime, the body’s high commissioner for human rights, Volker Turk, said there was “a great chance” for an inclusive political transition.
Speaking to the media in Geneva, he said he saw promising signs for such a debate. The HTS leader, who resumed his given name Ahmed al-Sharaa after using a nickname that referred to the Golan, has already said that he intends to see a government without a single leader.
HTS has an estimated 10,000 soldiers, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London). The Syrian National Army and its various other, more moderate groups, number perhaps 70,000.
The central question is what remains of Assad’s forces, which were made up of 169,000 people and still have control, alongside the now cornered Russian allies, of the Latakia region. Syrian booty includes fighter jets, helicopters and assorted armored vehicles.
And, mainly, the future relationship with the Kurds, who number 50,000 troops in northeastern Syria and are opponents of Turkey, the country that supported the overthrow of the dictatorship, sidelining rival Iran, weakened alongside its representatives by the war with Israel.
