Many believed that it would not be as quick or as easy as it was, but in an extremely dynamic way, one of the longest-running dictatorships in the world ended, and now a new government begins. The fall of the former Syrian dictator represents an enormous weakness on the part of Iran and Russia in not being able to provide support to their most valuable ally in the heart of , however, the victory of the rebels could only be the prelude to a bloody resumption of a civil war that It has killed more than half a million people.
On the one hand, the Russians accepted defeat, offered asylum to Assad and his family and still maintain an important naval base in Tartus, on the Mediterranean coast. For Iran, the overthrow of Assad, a Shiite dictator in a majority Sunni Arab country, means a considerable loss of prestige within the region. Furthermore, without an allied government on the border with Lebanon, the Iranians’ resupply of weapons to Hezbollah will make it impossible to continue financing the Lebanese terrorist group in its war against Israel.
The feared and cruel figure of Assad remains today in the memory and trauma of millions of Syrians, but the big question involves the future of the country. Among the biggest winners in taking there is the terrorist group (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), a Sunni paramilitary organization, born out of and which in the past has preached global jihad and the implementation of sharia in an ethnically and religiously diverse country.
In recent years, its top leader, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, has given a series of interviews to influential Western newspapers, saying that the days of radicalism are behind him and that he now intends to build a modern state from the Syrian ruins. In the past, other terrorist groups that were suddenly brought to power, as is the case with the Taliban in Afghanistan today, have also made promises of moderation, even further oppressing their minorities and women, when the spotlight of the international community turns elsewhere. corner of the world. For this reason, polite interviews and moderate speeches are heard with enormous fear and distrust by the entire international community.
There are also other factions within the opposition such as the Free Syrian Army, which in the early stages of the war collaborated with Western powers against the Assad regime. However, the military victory achieved by HTS could leave other more moderate groups out of power sharing in a new Syria.
Not only that, but we also have the self-styled Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an alliance of Kurdish militias that operate in the northeast of the country, and which aims to expand the influence of the Kurdish ethnic group in regional politics to the point that one day they will have their own nation. independent. In a scorched earth scenario and with so many internal and external players with different interests, the formula for a promising future has not been found until now.
With many heavily armed groups pursuing different objectives, the chance of a rekindling of the civil war exists, this time without the forces loyal to Assad in the picture, but still forming a multifaceted and complex conflict that often prioritizes international interests over the interests of Syrians. .
The Russians and Iranians still seek to maintain some of the influence they had, the Turks and Qataris are excited about the HTS victory, the rich monarchies of the Gulf feel more powerful without a Shiite leader in the center of the Middle East, the Americans and Europeans see an opportunity for territorial fragmentation that would possibly give birth to Kurdistan, while the Chinese analyze everything in a pragmatic way so that they can also ensure their influence in this strategic region of the world.
Considering all this, the possibility of the loss of Syria’s territorial integrity is a very big concern. Some analysts believe that in a scenario of reactivation of the civil war, or negotiation of its end, the on the map as we know it, it can fragment even further and even officially.
While millions of Syrian refugees around the world breathe a sigh of relief and many others are already planning to return to their country of origin, uncertainties are growing, worried that the country that waited so long for this moment will have its rebirth with the same vices of the past. The fear that Assad’s Syria will be more palatable than the Syria of tomorrow is real, and unfortunately, the tragic history of the Middle East will not allow us to rule out this possibility any time soon.
