The sending of the new version of the plan to Washington comes hours after Donald Trump Jr. stated that his father, “at any time, can opt out” of the process
“This is the first time that I have seen, in the history of diplomacy, the party that is being defeated trying to impose a negotiating plan. I have never seen such a thing.” This is how Tiago André Lopes, a specialist in international relations, reacts to the 20-point plan that will be presented by Ukraine to the USA.
For the CNN Portugal commentator, these moves carried out by Kiev “could lead to the Americans leaving the negotiation process”. “Ukraine is not in a moment of strength militarily, economically or politically. This is a fragile moment (…). It is very risky to move forward with this proposal. Do not forget that [os norte-americanos] when they leave diplomatic mediation, they may eventually leave military support. They may stop wanting to sell equipment and stop wanting to transfer equipment”, argues Tiago André Lopes, remembering that “Ukraine could be diplomatically alone”.
The international relations expert also recalls that Kiev “is currently facing cases of corruption that continue to undermine the credibility of the Ukrainian government and parliament”, at the same time that Russia “continues to advance”. “With these indicators, Ukraine considering that it has the legitimacy to take a diplomatic initiative to nullify the mediator’s plan is peculiar”, he argues.
The changes to the plan presented in November by the USA, originally composed of 28 points, come after Monday’s meeting in London with several European leaders, namely Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer and Friedrich Merz.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and the French President, Emmanuel Macron, talk to each other as they leave number 10 Downing Street, in London, on December 8, 2025. EPA/TOLGA AKMEN/Lusa
According to the Ukrainian president, the document was reduced to 20 points after removing “obviously anti-Ukrainian points”.
In the update that will reportedly be delivered this Tuesday, Major General Agostinho Costa understands that Zelensky removed “certainly those points that are red lines for Ukraine”. “The ceding of territories is the first, the second is Ukraine’s neutrality, while the third point will be the size of the army”, he argues, questioning “how Ukraine supports an army of 800 thousand when it has a deficit of more than 70 billion”.
For Agostinho Costa, the position taken by Zelensky in London meant, in practice, “saying no to the American plan”, under European influence and a “trio that includes Macron, Merz and Starmer”. In his reading, “what we have is the USA and Europe in a countercycle, both moving in the most opposite directions”.
“In truth, the war will continue. I believe that this plan will do nothing for peace because the Russians do not accept it. There must be a middle path here,” he says, adding that “we are witnessing the collapse of the North American initiative”, something that, he says, could be the trigger for the US to withdraw from the negotiations. “The USA has the opportunity here to find a graceful way out of the conflict, as if it had nothing to do with them, leaving the problem to Europe. This would represent the end of the diplomatic cycle, passing the word back to the battlefield.”
Europe risks a “dangerous game”
For Tiago André Lopes, European action in the current diplomatic impasse represents a significant strategic risk. “All the signs that Europe has shown are worrying. Europe is not understanding that it is playing a very dangerous game. It continues to put itself on the outside and does not want to be a mediator, at the same time that it has not allowed the only mediator that exists at this time [EUA] do this mediation.”
The analyst believes that the European Union has taken a stance that compromises the negotiation process itself. “You put yourself on one side of the story and think that this side is in charge, that it will condition, and that it will decide what it will do. And that is a big problem.”
According to Tiago André Lopes, the biggest risk is the absence of credible alternatives, if Europe continues to block the process without offering concrete solutions. “Europe doesn’t have an alternative. If Europe told me: ‘let’s take the 28 points, and the 20 points, and let’s make a third counter-proposal’, that’s legitimate. But that’s not what we’ve seen.”
The year was 2023, when Ukraine presented the 12-point plan to end the war that had started just a year ago. A plan that, for Tiago André Lopes, could be a mirror of the one presented by Zelensky, this Tuesday, two years after that moment.
“Clearly, the Ukrainians will continue to refuse territorial concessions and, in addition, demand political concessions, such as the easing of sanctions. In other words, we are returning to the original idea of 2023: Zelensky’s 12-point plan, in which Ukraine sought to impose its political will. The problem is that the reality on the ground, at the moment, is not favorable to them”, he highlights.
The sending of the new version of the plan to Washington comes hours after Donald Trump Jr. stated that his father, “at any time, can leave” the process. “I think he can do it. What’s good and unique about my father is that we don’t know what he’s going to do. He’s unpredictable,” he said from Doha, Qatar, something that may have left Ukrainians and Europeans on alert.
On Sunday, the American president himself had stated that he was “a little disappointed” with Zelensky, accusing the Ukrainian president of not having read the 28-point proposal and arguing that “his people love it”. In the same statements, Trump suggested that “Russia is in agreement”.
The problem with the Constitution
Ruling out the possibility of ceding any territory taken by Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky has taken refuge in the constitution. “We have no legal right to do so, whether under Ukrainian law, our Constitution, international law or, to be honest, moral law”, he defended in recent days.
A thesis that, for Tiago André Lopes, could fall apart. “The Ukrainian Constitution, in fact, does not allow the transfer of territory, in fact none does, but the Constitutions are changeable. They all have amendment mechanisms. Therefore, the idea that the Constitutions are suddenly a kind of law of Moses does not make much sense and does not fit with the reality on the ground”, recalls the specialist in international relations.
Tiago André Lopes also emphasizes that “in no war are the Constitutions used as an objective to not negotiate or to stop negotiation” but rather the opposite. “Sometimes that’s where you start making concessions.”
