After rising in the morning, future interest rates fell in the afternoon, due to reduced liquidity this Friday (26th) between the Christmas and New Year holidays, with position adjustments. As a backdrop, the fiscal-electoral scenario highlighted the letter from former president Jair Bolsonaro confirming support for his son Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-candidacy, and electoral research encouraging the reading that other names, including the senator, could be competitive enough for a second round against current president Lula.
The interbank deposit rate (DI) for January 2027 fell to 13.73%, from 13.828% in the previous adjustment. The DI for January 2029 fell to 13.22%, from 13.317%, and that for January 2031 closed at 13.53%, from 13.608% in Tuesday’s adjustment (23). In relation to the previous week, there was a slight closing in the forward curve.
The chief economist at BGC Liquidez, Felipe Tavares, mentions that it is difficult to say what made the price in the market this Friday, “semi-holiday”, as liquidity is very reduced. For him, as there was no political movement or relevant macroeconomic data being released either in Brazil or abroad, the movement of the forward curve on the last Friday of 2025 is more related to “just position adjustment”.
Among the assets that tend to influence future interest rates, the spot dollar rose 0.24%, to R$5.54, and the Treasuries curve behaved in a mixed manner, with the short end falling and the intermediate and long end slightly rising.
Still, the factor that has made the most price in recent trading sessions concerns the electoral scenario, with operators evaluating under a magnifying glass the chances of a possible change of government in 2026 which, in the financial market’s thesis, would yield a beneficial tax reform for domestic assets.
On Thursday, the 25th, the senator and pre-candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, Flávio Bolsonaro, stated that he received his father’s letter with great emotion. The document in question, released yesterday, mentions that former president Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to nominate him is “supported by the desire to preserve the representation of those who trusted” him.
The survey by Instituto Paraná Pesquisas showed President Lula technically tied with Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) and Ratinho Jr. (PSD). According to Tavares, from BGC, “the market is in the process of changing government, and needs to see this change in the economic cycle to be able to engage in the optimism it desires.” In this sense, the economist considers that this Friday’s survey opens the door to the reading that “perhaps it is not just Tarcísio who has enough competitiveness to beat Lula, because Flávio in less than 30 days of his candidacy is already drawing with Lula”, he comments.
