The cycle of protests that has been going through Iran for more than two weeks brings together elements already seen in other waves of protest, such as the violent repression by security forces, the almost total blocking of the internet and telephone services and the high number of deaths and arrests. This time, however, the political, economic and international context makes the movement more sensitive for the regime and less predictable in its developments.
According to human rights organizations based in the United States, at least 1,850 protesters have died and around 16,784 people have been arrested since the mobilizations began.
The Iranian government decreed the cut off of digital communications in an attempt to isolate the country and make it difficult to coordinate actions, a recurrent strategy in previous crises, but which now imposes high costs on the already fragile Iranian economy.
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The basis of current discontent is anchored in a deep economic crisis. The local currency, the rial, has lost around 40% of its value, while inflation remains high. The trigger came from a sector historically aligned with the regime: traders from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, who played a central role in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The austerity measures announced by President Masoud Pezeshkian, with the promise of reorganizing subsidies for the poorest, were not enough to contain dissatisfaction. In a few days, the demands stopped being mainly economic and started to include explicit requests for regime change.
There is also a relevant demographic factor. Official data indicates that 47% of the Iranian population was born after the Islamic Revolution and is under 30 years old. This generation, far from the founding discourse of the clerical system, appears as the main force of the demonstrations, occupying public buildings and burning images of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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At 86 years old, Khamenei faces health problems and does not have a clearly defined successor, which increases the perception of fragility at the top of power.
At the regional level, Iran is also experiencing a period of reduced ability to project influence. Allied groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas are weakened, and the country is still feeling the effects of the 12-day war with Israel, which took place in June 2025. This scenario reduces the regime’s room for maneuver both internally and externally.
The most sensitive difference in relation to previous protests, however, is in the international environment. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, became .
In a message published on the Truth Social network, Trump stated that “help is on the way” and said he had canceled meetings with Iranian authorities until what he called the “senseless murder” of protesters ceased. The statements come after the American military intervention in Venezuela, which raised the level of attention in Tehran.
According to the The Wall Street Journaloptions being analyzed by the US government include everything from tightening sanctions and the use of cyber instruments to military attacks and digital support for anti-government groups.
At the same time, Washington is already putting economic pressure on . Trump stated that he assesses the situation “very seriously” and indicated that the repression crossed a line considered unacceptable by his government.
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This combination of an acute economic crisis, generational erosion of the political system, regional weakening and external signs of possible support for the protesters differentiates the current cycle of protests.
Although the regime still has repressive instruments at its disposal, analysts assess that fear has lost part of its effectiveness as an element of social containment, at the same time that Tehran appears to have little capacity to offer short-term reforms capable of reversing the situation.
