With difficulty in setting up competitive platforms in strategic states, the government intensified pressure for Minister Fernando Haddad to run for governor of São Paulo and has already consolidated the candidacy of Planning Minister, Simone Tebet, for the Senate in the state. The move is part of a strategy by Palácio do Planalto to prevent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from reaching the election with fragile support in the country’s largest electoral colleges.
Planalto’s concern is that Lula will be left with fragile alliances in states with high electoral density, which could compromise the performance of his re-election campaign. Auxiliaries assess that it is necessary to act locally to prevent centrist parties currently present on the Esplanada from aligning themselves with Bolsonarist candidacies. Given the difficulty of attracting these parties formally, the strategy has been to dialogue with sectors of these parties and prevent them from forming structured alliances with the opposing camp.
An interlocutor of Lula states, with reservation, that the president does not want to take risks and should appoint ministers with political strength for regional missions, especially in areas considered strategic. The idea, says this ally, is to maintain a “reserve bank” with competitive names available.
Opportunity with security!
In an interview with GLOBO, minister Camilo Santana (Education) raised the tone of the demand and stated that Haddad cannot afford the “luxury” of making an individual decision. Even with resistance from the head of the Treasury, who has said more than once that he does not wish to run for office, the PT maintains Haddad as plan A for the São Paulo government and assesses that Lula has advanced in the process of convincing him.
Haddad has stated that he wants to participate in coordinating the campaign and formulating the government program. PT supporters close to the president say that Lula does not intend to impose a decision, but works directly to build consensus.
The most concrete definition to date in São Paulo, according to assistants, involves Simone Tebet. After recent conversations with Lula, she agreed to run for the Senate in the state and must leave the ministry by the end of March to facilitate the change of electoral domicile. Around the president, the assessment is that Tebet’s presence expands the reach of the Lulista platform, especially among centrist voters.
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Tebet began to be treated in Planalto as a structuring piece of the majority ticket in São Paulo, in a scenario in which Haddad remains the main name in the government. It is not yet defined whether it will remain in the MDB or migrate to another base subtitle.
The vice-president and minister of Industry and Commerce, Geraldo Alckmin, is also cited as an alternative to reinforce the São Paulo platform. Some of his allies advocate that he run for government if Haddad runs for the Senate.
Alckmin, however, has told interlocutors that he does not intend to run for elected office. The Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva, started to move to occupy one of the Senate seats in São Paulo. She talks to parties at the base and outside of it and indicated that she is willing to participate in electoral construction in the state, which could increase the internal dispute in the Lulista camp.
In the Northeast, Camilo Santana announced that he will leave the MEC to help with the articulation of alliances and the re-election of governor Elmano Freitas (PT), who faces the threat from Ciro Gomes (PSDB). Camilo is seen as plan B for the state government if Elmano does not advance in the polls — Lula has already told advisors that he does not “accept” losing Ceará.
In 2024, Fortaleza was the only capital conquered by the PT, with Evandro Leitão’s victory over Bolsonaro’s André Fernandes (PL). Camilo is named as one of those responsible for the coordination that guaranteed the result.
In Bahia, governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) will have former mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil) as his main opponent. Minister Rui Costa (Casa Civil) is expected to leave office in April and, in principle, run for the Senate, but there are discussions about the possibility of running for government if Jerônimo faces difficulties.
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Allies highlight that the Northeast was the only region in which Lula surpassed Bolsonaro in 2022 and consider it essential to repeat the performance. In the South, Southeast and Center-West, the assessment is that the left is unlikely to have a majority, but should seek to reduce the difference.
In Paraná, Lula selected Minister Gleisi Hoffmann (Institutional Relations) to run for the Senate. The initial plan was reelection to the Chamber, but, at the president’s request, she must try the Upper House to strengthen the ticket in a state considered difficult.
Since assuming the ministry, Gleisi has intensified dialogue with regional leaders to bring the government closer to strategic parties. Your team prepares a map of competitive applications and possible alliances.
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An ally summarizes that Lula’s plan is to field the best possible team in the states and even rehabilitate names that were out of politics, as long as they have electoral potential.
