The unilateralism of US President Donald Trump and preferential agreements make trends in foreign trade flows at the current time more unpredictable and uncertain. The assessment comes from the Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex) report released this Friday (13) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (Ibre/FGV).
“We start 2026 with the ‘certainty’ that unpredictability and uncertainty will continue to be part of the world scenario. In the short term, the possible meeting between Trump and President Lula, scheduled for March, may or may not result in the withdrawal of affected products, especially manufactured goods, which are still subject to a 50% tariff. In addition, the approval of the commercial part of the Mercosur-European Union agreement by the European Council is expected”, pointed out Icomex.
According to the FGV report, in 2025, there was a “clear” effect of Trump’s influence with the fall in the exchange rate, after a period of devaluation.
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The Brazilian trade balance recorded a surplus of US$4.3 billion in January 2026, an increase of US$2 billion compared to January 2025.
“The main contribution to this increase was China’s trade balance, which went from a deficit of US$536.6 million in January 2025 to a positive balance of US$717.7 million in the same month of 2026. The second main contribution was from the European Union, with a surplus of US$308.4 million in 2026, while in January 2025 the positive balance was US$98.5 million. The other markets registered a reduction in surplus (South America and Asia, excluding China) or an increase in deficit (United States)”, highlighted the FGV.
