Disapproval of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government reached 51.5%, according to the new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey released this Wednesday (25). Approval was 46.6%, while 1.8% said they did not know how to evaluate it.
In January, disapproval was 50.7% and approval was 48.7%. The negative difference, which was 2 percentage points, now increases to 4.9 points. A mark above 50% consolidates an absolute majority of unfavorable evaluation.
The increase in disapproval occurs at the same time that the president registers a decline in electoral simulations. In the first round, Lula fell from 48.8% in January to 45% now. In the second round against Flávio Bolsonaro, it went from 49.2% to 46.2%.
On the opposite side, Flávio advanced from 35% to 37.9% in the first round and from 44.9% to 46.3% in the second round. The scenario that previously indicated an advantage for the president now indicates a numerical tie within the margin of error.
The deterioration of the government’s assessment helps explain the shortening of the dispute. When disapproval exceeds approval and reaches an absolute majority, the electorate’s propensity to consider alternatives increases. The movement captured by the research suggests that part of this shift is already reflected in voting intentions.
The combination of a negative balance in the evaluation and a reduction in the electoral advantage transforms the scenario into an open dispute. The trajectory of the next rounds will depend on the government’s ability to reverse the disapproval index or prevent it from continuing to convert into a loss of support at the polls.
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The survey was carried out between February 19th and 24th and interviewed 4,986 voters across Brazil. The margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point and confidence is 95%. The survey was registered with the TSE under number BR-07600/2026
