The (ISW), a US-based think tank, states in its most recent report that the Kremlin would be looking for ways to divert attention from “the inability of the Russian military” to achieve the objectives of its invasion of Ukraine, which, and could provoke a nuclear incident to do so.
Those of could try to divert attention from their lack of achievements on the battlefield with a possible false flag nuclear operation, according to the center, a reference since the conflict began due to the reliability of its sources, diagnoses and forecasts.
“The Kremlin may be planning to blame Ukraine for a Russian-generated radiological incident in Ukraine,” he says. think tank Washingtonian, adding that Moscow sees it as a tool “to convince the West to abandon Ukraine or as a new attempt to break the Ukrainian will to continue resisting.”
Russia, repeatedly hitting Ukrainian nuclear power plants and supporting infrastructure. These attacks risk causing a radiological incident. “Russia can provoke an incident, intentionally or unintentionally, and then accuse Ukraine of using a nuclear or radiological weapon,” the dossier states.
“Russia can provoke an incident, intentionally or unintentionally, and then accuse Ukraine of using a nuclear or radiological weapon”
Pointing to kyiv’s allies
The ISW warning comes after what it said was “an unfounded claim” by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) that Britain and France are seeking to transfer one or more nuclear weapons and delivery systems to Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov went further and stated that “the intention of Paris and London to transfer a nuclear bomb to kyiv is a flagrant violation of international law.” “This information will be taken into account” by Russia during negotiations on Ukraine, Peskov added. The target is two nations that, precisely, lead the so-called Coalition of Volunteers, a diplomatic and security alliance made up of more than 30 European countries and allies that supports those facing the Russian invasion.
Their most recent meeting took place last Tuesday, the anniversary of the “special military operation,” as Putin calls it. The United Kingdom also announced on the same day an additional aid package to Ukraine, which has been harshly criticized by Russia.
“Senior Russian officials amplified the SVR claim in what ISW assesses as a coordinated information effort designed to raise the rhetoric of nuclear escalation and divert attention from the war anniversary,” the Institute adds.
Furthermore, he notes that Russia’s nuclear rhetoric “fits a recurring pattern” as the Kremlin has exploited the false narrative that Ukraine intends to use a ‘dirty bomb’ in the past to influence Western discussions about support for Ukraine or to set the conditions for Russian false flag attacks.
“The ISW continues to consider Russia’s use of nuclear weapons unlikely,” the report states, despite everything. The only notable difference in the new claims is that this time Moscow specifically points to the United Kingdom and France.
“The ISW continues to consider Russia’s use of nuclear weapons unlikely”
Chernobyl and Zaporizhia, the targets
Ukraine has four nuclear power plants and one of them has been in Russian hands since 2022. Moscow’s troops have occupied the (ZNPP) nuclear power plant since the first days of its large-scale invasion.
During these four years, Ukraine does not have access to the site, which has been heavily militarized by Moscow troops. A report produced by at the request of showed the continued militarization of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and its associated infrastructure.
“The ZNPP is operating as a Russian military base” with the construction of bunkers and a dam, violating security protocols. The plant has repeatedly suffered total power outages, often due to military action. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is one of the 10 largest in the world, and its fate in the midst of the fighting has raised fears of a nuclear catastrophe.
scene of the world’s worst nuclear catastrophe, was occupied by Russian troops in the first days of Moscow’s total war in 2022. It remained under the control of Russian troops for more than a month, until Ukrainian forces expelled Moscow troops from the kyiv region.
It was then confirmed that Russian troops dug trenches in the most contaminated part of the Chernobyl exclusion zone, receiving “significant doses” of radiation.
In 2025, a Russian drone attack damaged Chernobyl’s New Safe Confinement (NSC), a European-led project intended to act as a shield for the still radioactive remains of the decommissioned reactor and the original sarcophagus built immediately after the catastrophe. In January, Chernobyl suffered a complete loss of power as a result of Russian attacks.
