The unemployment rate stood at , according to data from Pnad Contínua (National Household Sample Survey), released this Thursday (5) by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). The result was in line with expectations and reflects the typical seasonality of the period, marked by the end of temporary hiring at the end of the year.
The warming of the job market and consistent income growth are factors that can influence the Central Bank’s decisions on the basic interest rate. With the next Copom meeting scheduled for mid-March, the expectation is for a 0.5 percentage point cut in the Selic rate, maintaining the gradual pace of reduction.
According to Luciano Costa, chief economist at Monte Bravo, the strength of the labor market and its impact on services inflation make it unlikely that the pace of cuts will accelerate to 0.75 or 1 percentage point in the next meetings. The dynamics of services inflation, which is more difficult to slow down, justifies the Central Bank’s caution in the monetary easing cycle.
Increase in income and wage bill
An important highlight of the research was the growth in the average real income from all jobs, which reached R$3,652, an increase of 5% in real terms in the annual comparison. The wage bill grew 7% in the same period, demonstrating the vigor of the labor market even in a scenario of high interest rates. This increase in income is a symptom of a tight labor market, with low labor availability in some sectors.
The workforce underutilization rate also fell, reaching 13.8%, the lowest level for quarters ending in January in the survey’s historical series. This indicates that there are fewer workers available on the market, which can generate pressure in labor-intensive sectors, such as construction and services.
