President tries to avoid fragmentation of the base in strategic regions; conflicts involve definitions for the Senate and allies who compete for the same platform
The president (PT) faces disputes between allies in at least 7 of the 9 states in the Northeast — a region that was decisive for his victory in 2022. The main challenge is not the opposition, but the fragmentation of the base itself, which is competing for seats in the Senate, state successions and protagonism on local platforms.
In some states, Lula’s base has more pre-candidates for the Senate than there are available seats — as is the case in Ceará, where at least 6 allies are competing for two seats, and in Paraíba, where names from the PSB, MDB and PP are asking for space on the ticket.
As each state will elect 2 senators in 2026, the president will have to arbitrate disputes between parties that are currently part of his coalition, such as PT, PSD, MDB and PSB, many of them with ministers or strategic leaders in Congress.
In other cases, the impasse involves local rifts and rivalries. In Maranhão, for example, the split between governor Carlos Brandão (PSB) and former governor and minister of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) Flávio Dino fragmented the Lulist base and opened space for the growth of the opposition. In Pernambuco, the president’s support is disputed by governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) and the mayor of Recife, João Campos (PSB), both allies of Lula, but opponents of each other.
The risk for the president is to leave the process with divided platforms, resentment between coalition parties and less electoral coordination in a region where he has historically received good votes and which helped to consolidate his victory in 2022. Prolonged fragmentation could reduce the mobilization of the base and weaken the PT’s political hegemony in the Northeast.
BAHIA: PT STUDY PLATE PURA
The governor (PT) is in his first term and is seeking re-election. Bahia’s PT considers launching a ticket “purebred”which would remove the MDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement) from the vice position, currently occupied by .
The pure ticket would also leave out the PSD (Social Democratic Party). In addition to not occupying the vice position, the party would also be out of the Senate race.
For the Upper House, Lula must support the re-elections of the minister of the Civil House, (PT), and the senator (PT), leader of the government in the Senate.
In the State, the PSD is chaired by the senator (PSD-BA). An ally of Lula, he has already signaled that the party in Bahia will support the president’s re-election regardless of the Senate ticket.
At the national level, the PSD has 3 pre-candidates for the Presidency: the governor, from Rio Grande do Sul; , from Paraná; and, from Goiás.
The president of the National PSD is the Secretary of Government and Institutional Relations of São Paulo, who has already defended a 3rd way to Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro.
SENATE PLACE IN CEARÁ
The dispute for the Ceará government involves the current governor (PT) and Lula’s former ally (PDT). The opposition articulates a unified candidacy and the base bloc needs to define 2 names for the Senate.
Of the current senators, 2 can run for re-election: (Novo) and (PSB). The senator (PT) is in the middle of her term. Girão, however, is a pre-candidate for government and Cid has signaled that he has no intention of running for the Senate.
Cid is Ciro’s brother, but the two broke up. Therefore, the senator must support Elmano’s re-election.
In Lula’s base, there are at least 6 names listed to compete for the two vacancies in the Upper House. They are:
- federal deputy Junior Mano (PSB);
- president of the Republicans in Ceará, Chiquinho Feitosa;
- federal deputy and former president of the Senate Eunício Oliveira (MDB);
- federal deputy José Guimarães (PT);
- federal deputy Luizianne Lins (PT);
- head of the state Civil House, Chagas Vieira.
Psol (Partido Socialismo e Liberdade) and Rede Sustentabilidade have signaled to welcome Luizianne Lins if there is no space for her on a PT ticket. Among Elmano’s base parties are: PT, PV, PCdoB, PSB, PSD, MDB, PP, Republicans, PRD and Solidariedade.
MARANHÃO: BRANDÃO AND DINO
The split in the State is between the governor (PSB) and Flávio Dino, former governor of the State and minister of the STF (Supreme Federal Court).
Brandão was Dino’s deputy for 2 terms and was elected governor with the support of the minister. The 2 broke up in August 2025 and the governor plans to launch his nephew Orleans Brandão (MDB) as successor to the state government.
Dino has already shown support for the vice-governor (PT). Brandão also broke with the PT member and must remain in government until December so as not to hand over the position to his opponent.
Lula’s allied base in the State fears that fragmentation will help the opposition, as in the (PL) election in 2022. There is concern about the growth in the former mayor’s (Novo) polls for the government.
PARAÍBA: RIBEIRO AND LUCENA
The governor (PSB) will compete for a seat in the Senate and must leave office by April. The vice, (PP), is the name of the basis for succession.
Lucas is the son of senator Daniella Ribeiro and nephew of federal deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro. He is an ally of the president of the PP, senator (PP-PI).
On the other hand, the mayor of João Pessoa, was from the Azevêdo base, but left the PP for the MDB. He should also be a candidate for the government of Paraíba. Lucena, like Ribeiro, supports Lula.
The composition of the Senate passes through the president of the Chamber, (Republicanos-PB).
The two vacancies at the base would belong to Azevêdo and the mayor of Patos, (PP), Motta’s father.
However, on the MDB side, the senator (MDB) will seek re-election and also supports the PT member.
PERNAMBUCO: CAMPOS AND LYRA
Lula’s support is (PSD) and the mayor of Recife, (PSB). Both are expected to run for government and shared Lula’s attention during Carnival.
Lyra is from the PSD, from , and Campos presides over the PSB Nacional. Both are from Lula’s base and expect support from the president on the campaign platforms.
WOMEN IN RN
The re-elected governor of Rio Grande do Norte, (PT), wants to return to the Senate. The other vacancy in the base would be (PSD), senator and deputy leader of the Lula government in the Upper House.
Zenaide distanced herself from the PT and Bezerra after the party launched its own candidacy in São Gonçalo do Amarante (RN) against the current mayor (PSD), the senator’s husband.
Voting intention surveys indicate that the leadership in Senate seats is with (PSDB). Because they compete for the same vacancy, an alliance between Bezerra and Maia, like the one that occurred in 2022, becomes less likely.
Another possible candidate for the Senate is the vice-governor, Walter Alves (MDB). If Bezerra and Alves leave in April to run, there will be an indirect election in the Legislative Assembly. Fátima supports the Secretary of Finance, Cadu Xavier (PT), for the buffer mandate.
SERGIPE: CARVALHO AND MITIDIERI
The governor (PSD) will support Lula’s reelection and has already communicated the decision to Kassab. He is close to the former minister of the General Secretariat, (PT).
Support for Lula comes despite resistance from Mitidieri (PT), current leader of the PT in the Senate and candidate for re-election. The PT president in Sergipe ran against Mitidieri in 2022.
Carvalho has not yet taken a position in favor of the governor, but had a conversation with him on February 9th.
For the Senate, Mitidieri must support former deputy André Moura (União) and senator Alessandro Vieira (MDB). Although they are on the same ticket, they are political rivals.
CONTROLLED SCENARIOS IN AL AND PI
- Alagoas: the senator (MDB) must seek re-election against the deputy’s (PP) ticket. The minister (MDB) will run for government. In opposition, Lira supports the mayor of Maceió, (PL). The dispute has not yet officially started, as JHC has not confirmed its pre-candidacy.
- Piauí: O PT to the Senate with Marcelo Castro (MDB) and deputy Júlio César (PSD). The agreement isolates Ciro Nogueira (PP). The governor (PT) will seek re-election.
Report carried out by Poder360 journalism trainee Ludmyla Barros, under the supervision of senior editor Mariana Haubert.
