The confirmation of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader signals a policy of continuity of the Islamic regime, without prospects for structural changes as desired by the United States. This is the assessment of Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira, professor of Economics at FAAP and International Relations at FGV, in an interview with CNN Brazil.
According to the expert, it represents a clear message of stability for the most conservative sectors of the regime. “The signal, with the choice of Khamenei’s son, is precisely one of continuity, that is, not what Trump intends,” said Vieira, referring to the American politician’s recent statements about Iran.
Although there may be some change in internal political conduct, mainly to calm popular protests motivated by economic and customs issues, the professor highlights that the Iranians will remain unchanged. “The principles that concern foreign policy, that is, seeing the United States there as an enemy and Israel, will remain non-negotiable”, he highlighted.
Challenges of the new leader
Vieira explains that the new supreme leader’s priority will be to keep the regime cohesive amid regional conflicts. “I think the priority is to keep the regime cohesive and, subsequently, if the war eventually ends, end this conflict as quickly as possible”, he analyzed.
The expert also addressed the possibility of destabilization of the Iranian regime in the face of American attacks. According to him, despite its fragility, the Islamic Republic has resistance mechanisms, including military equipment such as drones, which have a relatively low operating cost.
Another point highlighted was Iran’s ethnic diversity, which could be exploited by the United States to foment separatist groups within the country. “Iran is not unique in ethnic terms. We have, for example, the Kurds, who to this day, also present in Turkey, Iraq, and partly in Syria, want to form their own nation-state”, explained Vieira.
The professor warns that even if the Islamic Republic were to fall, the most likely result would be a civil war, keeping the Middle East region in a state of instability for a long period. “Even if the Islamic Republic falls, it is important to say that the Middle East, that region, will still remain unstable for a long time,” he concluded.
