Mayor of Rio appears ahead in all scenarios tested; Douglas Ruas comes in 2nd and André Ceciliano reaches 9% when included in the dispute
The mayor of Rio de Janeiro, (PSD), leads the dispute for the state government in all scenarios tested by the Real Time Big Data survey, released this Tuesday (11.mar.2026). The survey shows the mayor with a wide advantage over the other possible candidates.
In scenario 1 of the stimulated survey, Paes has 46% of voting intentions, followed by state deputy Douglas Ruas (PL), with 13%.
The Real Time Big Data survey interviewed 2,000 voters in the State of Rio de Janeiro from March 9 to 10, 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-04191/2026. Read (PDF – 6MB).
The other candidates appear with lower percentages:
- Eduardo Paes (PSD) – 46%;
- Douglas Ruas (PL) – 13%;
- Italo Marsili (New) – 5%;
- (Christian Democracy) – 5%;
- William Siri (Psol) – 3%;
- Firefighter Rafa Luz (Mission) – 2%;
- Null/blank – 10%;
- Don’t know/didn’t answer – 16%.
When the former president of Alerj André Ceciliano (PT) enters the dispute, Paes remains in the lead.
Scenario 2 (with Ceciliano)
- Eduardo Paes (PSD) – 42%;
- Douglas Ruas (PL) – 11%;
- André Ceciliano (PT) – 9%;
- Italo Marsili (New) – 5%;
- Wilson Witzel (Christian Democracy) – 5%;
- William Siri (Psol) – 2%;
- Firefighter Rafa Luz (Mission) – 2%;
- Null/blank – 9%;
- Don’t know/didn’t answer – 15%.
In a leaner scenario, with just two names, Paes increases the advantage.
Scenario 3
- Eduardo Paes (PSD) – 51%;
- Douglas Ruas (PL) – 19%;
- Null/blank – 11%;
- Don’t know/didn’t answer – 19%.
Rejection
The survey also measured rejection of possible candidates for Rio’s government.
- Wilson Witzel (Christian Democracy) – 52%;
- Eduardo Paes (PSD) – 39%;
- André Ceciliano (PT) – 38%;
- William Siri (Psol) – 26%;
- Douglas Ruas (PL) – 23%;
- Italo Marsili (New) – 19%;
- Firefighter Rafa Luz (Mission) – 17%.
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