The Genial/Quaest survey released this Wednesday (11) confirms the consolidation of () in voting intentions for this year’s presidential election. In a second round simulation, the senator appears numerically tied with the president () and advances among independent voters.
The scenario tested with the two main pre-candidates for Planalto shows both the PT member and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) with 41% of voting intentions. .
The survey was carried out from March 6th to 9th with 2,004 Brazilians aged 16 or over through home collection. The estimated margin of error is two percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%. The research is registered with the (Superior Electoral Court) under code BR-05809/2026.
Flávio recorded significant variation among the segment of independent voters. The senator went from 21% in January this year to 26% in February and 32% in March. The maximum margin of error for this group is three percentage points. From January to March, Lula fluctuated negatively from 37% to 27% in the segment.
In the first round scenarios, the current president leads numerically in all, with Flávio close behind. The difference between them varies from 1 to 7 percentage points, with a margin compared to other names.
In addition to Flávio and Lula, Quaest tested the candidacies of (), (), (PSD), (PSD), Aldo Rebelo (Christian Democracy) and Renan Santos (Mission) as alternatives.
In this group, Ratinho appears in two scenarios, with 7% in both, while Zema is rated in four scenarios, with scores of 2% and 3%. Caiado appears with 4% of intentions in two simulations. Milk is listed in two scenarios, at 3%. Renan and Aldo Rebelo score 1 to 2 points in all scenarios.
In the second round, the difference between Lula (42%) and Ratinho (33%) is 9 points. In a scenario in which the PT member (44%) competes against Zema (34%), the advantage is 10 points. Against Caiado (32%), there is a 12 point difference to Lula (44%). Eduardo Leite scores 26% compared to 42% for the current president.
In a simulation against Aldo Rebelo, Lula has 44%, and the former minister, 23%. In the case of a possible clash with the leader of the MBL (Movimento Brasil Livre), Renan Santos, he has 24% against 43% for the PT member.
Lula and Flávio recorded the highest rejection rates in the research. According to the survey, 55% say they know the former president’s son and say they would not vote for him, the same percentage as in the previous survey. The PT member appears with 56%, compared to 54% in February.
Among the others, Ratinho has a rejection rate of 38% (was 40%) and Zema appears with 33% (was 34%). Caiado and Leite maintained the level of 35% recorded in the previous survey. Aldo Rebelo scores 21% (previously 26%) and Renan Santos, again 19%.
