The is about to close its second week, with tension in the air throughout the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz practically impassable. All this is having an impact on the energy market. After the new supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, defended continuing to blockade Hormuz, the barrel of Brent has once again exceeded the level of $100.
The countries of the Persian Gulf cannot export crude oil, which has led international analysts to believe that these petrostates, due to lack of income, cannot continue investing in US financial markets (mainly in AI and technology). This would trigger a dangerous domino effect that would have consequences throughout the global economy.
However, more and more economists are speaking out. There will be winners. In fact, there already are. And it’s not just Donald Trump: the person responsible, along with Israel, for starting this conflict has gone so far as to say that when the price of oil rises, the US makes “a lot of money.” Economists agree and They are already looking at the energy sector.
The key: when the war will end
The great key that economists have on the table right now is the same one that everyone will have in mind. How long will this war last? Donald Trump has said on more than one occasion that the conflict is already “won” but that “there is still work to do.” on one occasion warning that this war will end when they consider it.
At the moment the US and Iran continue trying to attack the Iranian air capabilities. It is unknown to what extent or with what success. Despite the grandiose videos that the Trump Administration shares on social networks, news continues to emerge the next day about oil tankers that have been attacked in Hormuz or on burning refineries and plants in surrounding countries.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, even raised the possibility that, after carrying out protection and defense work in Cyprusa naval contingent made up of French ships will approach the Strait of Hormuz to try to reopen it. Trump even warned Tehran that there would be “consequences” if Iran had mined the Strait. And even Defense Minister Margarita Robles had to rule out accompanying her to France on that mission.
Winners in different scenarios
What is striking about the matter is that some specialists have begun to put aside that crucial question: when will the war end. Lewis Grantsenior portfolio manager with global equities at Federated Hermes, notes that “regardless of whether the war drags on (leading to higher oil prices) or ends, there are already energy names among those most likely to benefit this year.”
“Will this conflict last long enough to significantly increase inflation and cause a global recession?” Grant highlights that although crude oil and gas have seen a lot of volatility these days, Its futures markets have not experienced such ups and downs. This gives rise to thinking that the market believes that this war will not last much longer… although the market can also make the wrong bet.
Despite this confidence, Grant emphasizes that whether it ends now or continues sine the the conflict, the big energy companies They will continue to be the winners. Not those in the Middle East, of course, but Trump was not lying when he said that in circumstances like this the US makes “a lot of money.”
