We are heading into the third week of war with oil priced at US$100, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. You economic effects of the rise in the commodity are already beginning to be felt in Brazil.
First, there is a great demand for diesel in order to build stocks, which led Petrobras to create sales quotas for distributors. Furthermore, there were already preventive price increases in diesel in the expectation that the fuel would increase in the refinery, as in fact happened.
Not surprisingly, the government zeroed PIS/Cofins on diesel oil. As the measure will bring a tax waiver of R$20 billion, the Treasury decided to tax oil exports to compensate for the revenue loss.
There are some points to consider. It is not certain that the export tax will compensate for the measure. Furthermore, taxing exports is never a good measure, since the product loses international competitiveness (the price becomes higher) and discourages investment due to greater taxation and government interference, becoming a problem in the medium and long term.
In this situation, governments generally do not understand that, if the price is high, it is because the good is scarce; Often, interfering with supply and demand relationships is not the best solution, bringing additional problems to the economy. THE price reduction will not increase oil supplybut it will further stimulate the consumption of a good that is scarce.
Of course, tax reductions are always welcome, but there must be conditions for this. Hence the importance of keeping public accounts up to date to use this mechanism at times like this, or even on a more permanent basis.
In any case, an inflationary rebound caused by the rise in oil and natural gas is certain. In almost all production processes, from agriculture to industry, these commodities are used.
Of course, inflation for the population is never good. And not even for the government, especially in an election year.
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.
