PSD senator appears ahead in all scenarios; beats opponents in the 2nd round and Almeida has greater rejection
Real Time Big Data research on the dispute for the government of Amazonas shows consistent leadership of Omar Aziz in the stimulated scenarios. The former governor appears comfortably ahead in all 1st round simulations, with 39% and 37%.
Next, appear (PL), with a variation of 26% and 27%, and David Almeida (Avante), with 19% and 22%, competing for 2nd place. (PP) appears to have lower performance when included in the scenarios.
The research was carried out from March 17th to 18th, with 1,500 interviews in Amazonas. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered with the TRE under number AM-00383/2026, cost R$60,000 and was paid for with own resources. Read (PDF – 7 MB).
STIMULATED SCENARIOS (1st SHIFTER)
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Scenario 1:
- Omar Aziz: 39%;
- Maria do Carmo Seffair: 27%;
- David Almeida: 22%;
- null/blank: 7%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer: 5%.
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Scenario 2:
- Omar Aziz: 37%
- Maria do Carmo Seffair: 26%;
- David Almeida: 19%;
- Tadeu de Souza: 8%;
- null/blank: 6%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer: 4%.
2ND SHIFT
In 2nd round scenarios, Aziz maintains an advantage over his main opponents. Against David Almeida, he wins by 48% to 32%. In a possible confrontation with Maria do Carmo Seffair, he leads by 44% to 37%.
In the dispute between Seffair and Almeida, there is a technical tie, with 39% to 37%, within the survey’s margin of error.
Here are the results:
- Maria do Carmo Seffair x David Almeida
- Maria do Carmo Seffair: 39%;
- David Almeida: 37%;
- Null/blank: 11%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer: 13%.
REJECTION
The rejection is led by David Almeida, with 47%, followed by Omar Aziz (40%). Maria do Carmo Seffair recorded 22% and Tadeu de Souza, 16%. Only 4% say they could vote for all the names presented.
GOVERNMENT ASSESSMENT
The government of Wilson Lima is disapproved by 50% of respondents and approved by 45%, while 5% did not know or did not respond.
In the qualitative assessment, 25% consider the management to be excellent or good, 39% classify it as regular and 33% as bad or terrible. Another 3% did not respond.
