The country is at a critical juncture, as on the one hand the country appears ready to present its own response to the 15-point plan to end the conflict that has been handed to it by its government. On the other hand, however, the spiral of escalation in the field continues.
but also the threats of an immediate response from the Revolutionary Guards. The latter warn of retaliation that will target industries and businesses in the Middle East with American and Israeli interests.
Escalation also “smells” the circulation by the Iranian leadership of the idea of imposing tolls on ships passing through the Straits of Hormuz.
Wounds in nuclear facilities
The strikes throughout the day in Iran and Lebanon were a flurry, with the intensity of the attacks appearing clearly increased compared to previous days.
The airstrikes in Iran that hit the heavy water facility in Arak and a yellowcake production plant in Yazd province, as well as two major steel plants – Khuzestan Steel and Mobarakeh Steel in Isfahan, caused a particular sensation.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said no increase in radioactivity levels outside the facility was recorded, while Iranian authorities noted that safety precautions had been taken.
Tehran’s reaction and the Straits of Hormuz
Tehran said the attacks also hit civilian infrastructure, schools and hospitals, while officials stressed it was “unacceptable” to call for negotiations while military strikes continue.
At the same time, the possibility of an escalation in the Straits of Hormuz, through which a significant percentage of the world’s oil transport passes, is of particular concern.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the closure of the passage to American and Israeli ships is a “legitimate measure”, while the idea of imposing tolls on ships passing through the strategic passage is also being discussed within the country.
The US position and Rubio’s statements
The US side is significantly increasing the presence of its forces in the region, even with ground units, as the issue of the Straits seems to be a key priority for the administration of Donald Trump – even though he recently stated that “the Straits are not about us”.
Indicative of the prevailing uncertainty regarding the course of the conflict is the attitude of Washington, as reflected in the statements of the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, from the meeting of the G7 foreign ministers.
Rubio made it clear that the US is opposed to any tolling in the Strait of Hormuz. He stressed, however, that the war is not expected to last more than two to four weeks and that Washington’s military objectives can be achieved without the deployment of ground forces.
According to him, the strengthening of American forces in the region is mainly related to the need to prepare for possible unforeseen scenarios.
The impact on markets and the fear of an energy crisis
The prospect of a long-term disruption to shipping due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is already causing intense concern, which does not appear to be abating despite efforts by Donald Trump to argue that there is still room for diplomacy.
Oil prices rose significantly, with Brent exceeding $110 a barrel, while international stock markets fell. The Nasdaq tech index was in a correction zone, while government bond yields rose amid fears of a new wave of inflation.
Europe is in a panic
Indicative of the concern is that the European Commissioner for the Economy, Valdis Dombrovskis, warned that the European Union is at risk of facing a “stagflationary shock” due to the rise in energy prices.
At the same time, an emergency teleconference of the competent ministers of the 27 member states is planned, while Germany leaves open the possibility of extending the operation of lignite power generation units if the energy crisis worsens.
Warnings of global economic impact
Several international analysts estimate that the risk of further escalation remains high.
Economist Nouriel Roubini warns that a protracted conflict could lead the world economy to conditions similar to those of the 1970s if the energy crisis deepens.
