The Middle East is transformed after a month of the war started by the US and Israel against Iran

Although it may not seem like it, it has only been a month since the start of the guerra that has shaken the entire world. Barely four weeks since the conflict that has revolutionized millions of lives in Near East and tens of millions of wallets beyond these borders. Unimaginable realities have become the general tone of the news: American bombings on Iranthe paradises of luxury gulf Persian besieged by daily attacks, the political leadership of the ayatollah regime assassinated… In parallel, other known scenarios—Iranian missiles against Israeli citiesa new military offensive against the Lebanonwith its corresponding land invasion—have been repeated, with violence multiplying every minute.

It all started last February 28. Israel y USA they launched a joint operation against Irandynamiting the talks between Washington and Tehran that, according to the mediators, were progressing positively. That same day the Ayatollah was assassinated Ali Jameneíthe Iranian supreme leader for the past 37 years. Iran responded immediately by launching drones and missiles against the American allies in the region. For a whole month and without any respite, Israel and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, home to US military bases, have been subjected to a sustained bombing campaign. Just like Iran itself, where 1,900 people have died, more than 20,000 have been injured and 3.2 million have been displaced.

Two days later, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah He joined the aggression against Israel in revenge for the assassination of Khamenei. The launch of projectiles from Lebanese territory has provoked a brutal response against the country of the cedars. At least 1.142 personas have lost their lives in less than a month, another 3,315 have been injured and around 1.2 million have been displaced. Israeli leaders have ordered the forced eviction of 15% of Lebanonbetween claims of occupation and to turn the country into Gaza if Hezbollah It doesn’t come apart. Fighting inside the country between militiamen and Israeli soldiers has caused casualties on both sides, while the Lebanese Army abandons its positions.

Change in the Gulf

In parallel to all this violence, the global economy is paralyzed by closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Iranian authorities. The price of crude oil continues to increase while increasing pressure on the US president, Donald Trumpto stop the war. As Iran continues to be subjected to heavy bombing, indirect talks between Washington and Tehran raise concerns hopes for an agreement to end the conflict. “Iran is showing off its military power; in reality, it is not that strong,” he says Nadeem ShahidiLebanese economist and columnist. “Iran has been dealt a very hard blow, but the question is how to end it in a way that guarantees Gulf security”he tells EL PERIÓDICO. “The people of the Gulf must be very worried because now they are hostages from Iranhe adds.

“Iran sent them a clear message: ‘I can attack you whenever I want,’ and they are paralyzed, and they cannot afford to instability”declares Shahidi, pointing out the dependence that the Gulf countries have on their global public image. Since February 28, Iran has attacked nine countries: Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. An Iranian drone hit a landing strip at a British military base in Cyprus. Most of the attacks have been intercepted. Where there have been the most fatalities has been in Iraq, 96 specifically, in both Iranian attacks against American and American bases due to the presence of pro-Iranian Iraqi militias in their territory. “The Emirates are very vulnerable,” says Shehadi. There have been 11 fatalities and 169 injured. He US Army has suffered 13 casualties.

Regime change?

For their part, US and Israeli forces have been attacking Iran all this month, including nuclear, military and civil targets. “At the beginning of this offensive, the United States and Israel did not clearly announce which “They were his objectives”Shehadi recalls. First, there was talk of the desire for regime change in Iran, although that objective has been forgotten. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahustill clinging to him. Or take the Persian country to chaos and weakening it as a regional power would also serve it. For this reason, it has focused its attacks on key energy infrastructure that provokes a response from the civilian population that leads the country to internal conflicts. “Before the collapse of the Soviet Unionnobody expected it, nor the collapse of the Iranian regime of the shahor the regime of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad”pointed out Shehadi.

“It is still possible that something happens internally in Iranand I think that would be the best solution: that in Iran there was a regime that was not a criminal regime that kept everyone hostage,” defends this Lebanese economist. Trump would not dislike such a scenario, but, for the moment, it does not seem to be his priority. Right now, it is reopen the Strait of Hormuz and avoid sinking the global economy and that of its voters even more by a war that responds more to the Netanyahu’s goals than to their own. For this reason, the American president is launching ultimatum in Tehran and defends negotiations that Iran claims are not under crossfire. While these are not resolved, the big question is how long can it last this large-scale offensive. Iran is isolated and cannot receive more arsenal than it already has.

Risk to the international legal order

Israel told its American partner this week that it is being left with a critically low number of ballistic missile interceptors. It already entered the current war with a small number of interceptors, which were fired during the conflict with Iran last summer, according to US officials. Traffic lights. In turn, the Israeli population It is exhausted. Despite their majority support for the offensive, their daily lives have been completely altered for weeks, going down to the air raid shelters almost every hour. The other scenario is Lebanon. There, the Israeli Army has launched an invasion with the declared intention of empty the south of the country 30 kilometers north of their shared border.

“The geographical spread, the speed of escalation and the blatant disregard for international norms constitute a critical stress test for the international legal order created to protect civilians during armed conflict”

“If an agreement is not reached between Lebanon and Israel that guarantees the security of the settlers in northern Israel, nothing will stop the Israelis from demanding a buffer zonewhich is worse than an occupation,” declares Shehadi, like the one between 1978 y 2000. “Now they pretend depopulate the regiondestroy it completely and create a buffer zone; Therefore, it is urgent for the Lebanese Government to act immediately,” he says. The consequences of this conflict go far beyond the present for all parties. Human Rights Watch has denounced that “the geographical spread, the speed of escalation and the blatant disregard for international standards constitute a critical stress test for the international legal order created to protect civilians during armed conflict.”

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