The senator (-RJ) is in a technical tie with the president (PT) in a second round simulation for the 2026 presidential election, and 51.4% of Brazilian voters say they can still change candidates by October, according to the Meio Ideia survey released this Wednesday (8).
In the direct confrontation, Flávio scores 45.8%, compared to 45.5% for Lula — the senator appears numerically ahead, but the difference of 0.3 points is within the margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. Whites, null and undecided total 8.7%.
The survey interviewed 1,500 people across Brazil from Friday (3) until this Tuesday (7), through telephone interviews. The confidence interval is 95%. The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol BR-00605/2026.
In the other second round scenarios tested, Lula appears ahead of his opponents. It scores 45% against 39% of (); 44.7% against 38.7% for Romeu Zema (Novo); 45% against 26.4% for Renan Santos (Missão) and 46% against 22.6% for Aldo Rebelo (DC).
The survey is the first released after the end of the party window and the period of non-compatibilization. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), who appeared in a technical draw with Lula in previous rounds, was no longer tested in the stimulated scenarios. In spontaneous responses, it appears at 2.3%.
In the stimulated first round scenario, Lula appears with 40.4%, and Flávio Bolsonaro has 37%. Ronaldo Caiado appears in third, with 6.5%. Renan Santos and Romeu Zema tied with 3% each, and Aldo Rebelo scored 0.6%. Whites and nulls total 1%, and the undecided electorate is 8.5%.
In the spontaneous question — in which no name is presented to the interviewee —, Lula has 32.6% of voting intentions, and Flávio Bolsonaro comes in second, with 19.4%. Former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), ineligible, still accounts for 6% of mentions, which indicates that part of the Bolsonarist electorate did not migrate to his son. Zema comes next, with 4.1%, and Caiado, with 2.6%. 25.3% do not know or do not mention anyone.
The volatility of the electorate is the data that has grown the most throughout the series. In January, 64.5% of those interviewed said they were determined and 35.5% admitted that they could change candidates. In April, the proportion changed: 48.6% said they had decided and 51.4% said they could still change their vote.
In the general assessment of the Lula government, 46.4% classify the management as bad or terrible, and 32.2% as excellent or good. Another 19% rate it as regular. In terms of public security, bad and terrible account for 53.9%, with 18.9% excellent or good.
When asked whether Lula deserves to continue in office after the end of his term, 51.5% said no, compared to 45% who answered yes.
Seven in ten Brazilians (70.4%) say that the cost of living has increased in the last year, and 4 in 10 say they are more in debt. In the electoral decision, 74.7% consider cost of living and debt to be very important or important.
The survey also asked about threats to democracy. The concentration of power in the Judiciary was identified as the biggest risk by 42.5% of those interviewed — above political corruption (16.5%), polarization (13%), disinformation (9.7%) and the influence of other countries. 4.3% consider that Brazilian democracy is not threatened.
Regarding amnesty for those convicted of the acts of January 8, 41% are against any type of pardon. The sum of those in favor reaches 53% — 32% support broad amnesty, including Bolsonaro and the military, and 21% accept amnesty only for protesters, excluding leaders.
The majority of respondents (52%) say that elections should be decided only by Brazilians, without foreign pressure.
