Infrastructure: the star rises | CNN Brazil

The international environment is very turbulent, with wars in Europe and the Middle East combined with the protectionist actions of the American government, with unpredictable effects on inflation and interest rates around the world. In Brazil, uncertainty is no less, whether due to the consequences of mega scandals such as Banco Master and INSSwhether due to the complex political situation in an election year.

Added to the concerns are high interest rates, the growth of internal debt and the chronic anemia of our Gross Fixed Capital Formation, that is, of investments, particularly in industry.

Within this Friday the 13th scenario, a star has been shining with increasing intensity. This is the infrastructure sector, which has been breaking investment records in recent years, surpassing the peak recorded in 2014. The sector that was the ugly duckling for an entire decade has entered a virtuous cycle of growth and with good future prospects, as shown in the Abdib Infrastructure Blue Book.

It is important to highlight that this did not happen in the snap of a finger, overnight. In fact, it was a process resulting from a series of reforms that began about a decade ago and which still continues. It was an arduous learning curve. We have followed the path of lack of planning, poorly structured projects, poor risk mitigation and unfeasible rates of return.

This scenario began to be reversed with important changes in public sector governance. There was better coordination between ministries, regulatory agencies, inspection and control bodies and official financial credit institutions. As a result, there were advances in the planning of the concessions program with definitions of priorities and a well-defined execution schedule, significant improvements in the structuring of projects with significant participation from BNDES, Caixa, multilateral banks and also EPE, currently Infra SA. Rules were established for renewal and for new tenders for concessions. The creation of Secex-Consenso at TCU has contributed to conciliation and conflict resolution.

At the same time, the formation of a new financing pattern was observed with the diversification of financing sources. BNDES returned to acting as a development bank, expanding its budget with LCD emissions, resources from the Climate Fund and the innovation program. Therefore, BNDES increased its operations from around R$80 billion in 2019 to R$171 billion in 2025. BASA and BNB performed in the same direction.

Advances in financing and regulation

The capital market now has significant participation, through incentivized debentures, which reached R$175 billion in 2025. To this value should be added the issuance of infrastructure debentures, attracting institutional investors to this market. External resources have also had a more significant participation, whether through multilateral banks, or through the issuance of green bonds by the National Treasury and investment funds.

This is due to risk reduction and improved project structuring. Regarding risk reduction in exchange rate volatility, the Eco Invest Brasil program stands out, launched in 2024

Still in relation to advances, it is worth highlighting the legislative agenda, with the approval of the sanitation regulatory framework (2020), the bidding law (2021) and the gas law (2021). In the 2024/25 biennium alone, more than 10 laws were approved, with important impacts on infrastructure. Stands out in 2024 Eco Invest Brasil and the securitization of tax debt. And, in 2025, Patenregulation of the carbon market, the improvement of environmental licensing rules and the new regulation of the electricity sector.

Even with all the advances achieved and with the reduction of the infrastructure investment gap, calculated by Abdib, from 2.11% of GDP in 2022 to 1.74% of GDP in 2025, the country is still far from achieving the objectives of having adequate infrastructure to increase competitiveness and meet the needs of the population.

What’s the reason we haven’t made more progress with investments?

It is important to highlight that the investments made in this expansionary cycle were led by the private sector as a result of the aforementioned advances. On the other hand, Fiscal fragility and misallocation of resources in the budget prevented the public sector from fulfilling its role in relation to complementing the resources necessary to more quickly reduce the investment gap.

In reality, while private investment grew from R$152 in 2014 to R$235 billion in 2025, public investment reduced from R$99 billion to just R$45 billion in the same period. In global terms public investment (Union, States and Municipalities) fell from 2.85% of GDP in 2010 to around 2.22% in 2025.

No country in the world built its infrastructure solely with private resources!

Several causes are listed by experts for the Brazilian fiscal crisis: social security, social programs, tax exemption, indexation by the minimum wage, among others; reducing, year after year, the value of the federal government’s discretionary expenses, where the investments are located. However, it is frightening how much the value of parliamentary amendments has increased in recent years, resources that are not linked to government priorities.

Federal public investments in transport/logistics infrastructure went from R$27 billion in 2014 to just R$14 billion in 2025, in real terms. On the other hand, the values ​​of parliamentary amendments, in the same period, jumped from almost zero to R$50 billion. This is unacceptable!

Some adjustments to the legislative agenda are still necessary, such as the new framework for concessions/PPPs, but without public investments to complement private investments in infrastructure structuring projects, we will not achieve the desired objectives.

* Venilton Tadini is executive president of Abdib (Brazilian Association of Infrastructure and Basic Industries)