“A new model of warfare”. Ukraine conquers Russia’s position only with aerial and ground drones and creates “a dilemma”

For the first time in the history of the conflict, Ukraine conquered a Russian military position using exclusively a combined fleet of air and land drones, without sending infantry to the ground. This unprecedented tactical success marks a turning point on the battlefront, but hides a dilemma

What until very recently was confined to the best science fiction books may have just become reality and changed the world of warfare forever. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine managed, for the first time, to conquer enemy positions without using infantry on the ground. Through unprecedented coordination of air and ground drones, Ukrainian forces forced the surrender of Russian military personnel without risking the life of a single Ukrainian soldier. But this revolution, although it excites the military leadership due to its effectiveness, opens the door to a path of no return.

“We are effectively witnessing a change in the very nature of war. It’s not just the way of fighting that is changing. Soon, we will have to deal with very deep ethical issues. A machine, autonomously, killing a human. Is this legal? Is it ethically acceptable?”, asks Major General Jorge Saramago, a specialist in military affairs.

Details of the operation are scarce. The Ukrainian military, which is usually quick to share images of successful military operations, this time did not do so. The only source of information is the Ukrainian president himself, who revealed that, for the first time in the history of the war, “an enemy position was captured exclusively by unmanned platforms.” Unlike other operations, where aerial drones attacked enemy positions and caused Russian soldiers to surrender, this mission was supported by several unmanned ground vehicles equipped with machine guns.

“The occupants surrendered and the operation took place without infantry intervention and without casualties on our side. (…) This is high technology protecting the most precious asset: human life”, stated Volodymyr Zelensky, on social media.

For military planners, the war in Ukraine is seen as a veritable laboratory for new military technologies. Since the beginning of the conflict, Ukraine has resorted to the use of drones, through modifications and innovations, to try to level the battlefield. Technological evolution in this field happens at a dizzying speed, with drone manufacturers implementing changes in just a few days, responding to requests from soldiers in the field. This has led to the creation of different types of drones, from reconnaissance, to bombers, to kamikaze drones.

But a new type of drone is slowly starting to enter the scene: the ground drone. According to the Ukrainian president, there are more than six types of land drones operating in Ukraine and they have already completed more than 22 thousand missions in just three months. Some models of these drones are specialized in transporting the wounded, others in transporting goods, but others, like those used in this operation, are focused on combat missions and equipped with heavy weapons.

Although the use of ground-based drones has lagged behind that of aerial drones, this may be about to change. Young Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhailo Fedorov announced on April 15 that the country will create drone assault units. These new military formations will combine the power of aerial drones with ground drones to try to “saturate” enemy defenses in a given area.

“A new model of warfare is being introduced — drone assault units, which combine aerial and ground drones with infantry in a single system,” said the Ministry of Defense.

“What Ukraine is doing (…) is assigning each maneuver unit, on the battlefield, drones to be operated. A drone is an additional weapon that, at the limit, each combatant on the front line can operate effectively”, says Major General Jorge Saramago.

Despite the apparently futuristic scenario, the creation of these units does not mean that the machines are already fighting alone. At this moment, the current model strictly follows the principle of human in the loopwith the human in control of the decision. According to Major General Jorge Saramago, what happens now is that “people are not spared, lives are saved, because each of these drones has to be operated by a human pilot”.

In practice, we only see “more and more humans using more machines”, exponentially increasing the lethality of each soldier. The problem is that this robotic saturation on the ground can bring a dangerous temptation. With the breakneck speed at which modern combat unfolds, the door is now definitively ajar for the next step: removing the human from the loop to speed up reaction time, giving artificial intelligence total autonomy to dictate, for itself, who lives and who dies on the battlefield.

“The way of waging war will substantially change when artificial intelligence is introduced into machines and machines themselves control other machines. The dominance of artificial intelligence will confer significant advantages on the State that best dominates it. (…) And even so, there is indeed a temptation, having a great advantage (…), to impose will by force because it has a much greater difference”, admits the general.

This new technological change in the military field leaves the door ajar for a new arms race. This reality poses a dilemma for the international community to jointly prevent the development of autonomous weapons and armies. For Major General Jorge Saramago, an international consensus is necessary, similar to what happened with international treaties that prohibited the use of chemical gases during war. However, the success of a measure of this nature depends on everyone’s implementation.

“And when I am attacked by autonomous drones, do I restrict myself from responding? To prevent this dystopian scenario from becoming irreversible, the only hope lies in the ability to reform institutions and create new forums for diplomatic understanding”, argues Major General Jorge Saramago, before the final decision to pull the trigger no longer belongs to humanity.