Brazil appears only in sixth place among the favorites for the 2026 World Cup title, according to a survey by “supercomputer” da Opta Analyst.
The team led by has a 6.23% probability of winning the trophy, leaving it outside the main group of candidates.
The scenario indicates a change in relation to previous cycles, when the company was often among the main favorites.
This time, the team appears behind European teams and also the current world champion, the Argentine Football Team, in a context of greater balance in international football.
The leader of the ranking is the Spanish Football Team, which has a 15.81% chance of winning the title. Next come the French Football Team, with 12.95%, and the English Football Team, with 11.06%.
The Argentine Football Team appears in fourth place, with 10.46%, while the Portuguese Football Team completes the group that appears ahead of Brazil, with 6.89%.
Right behind the Brazilian team are the German Football Team (5.76%), the Netherlands Football Team (3.82%), the Norwegian Football Team (3.39%) and the Belgian Football Team (2.40%), completing the list of the ten teams most likely to win the title.
Brazil’s position draws attention due to the team’s historical weight, but it follows the performance presented throughout the cycle.
The projection indicates that, to return to compete for the title in more favorable conditions, the team will need to overcome the scenario outlined by the statistical model.
Model accumulates recent successes and failures
Opta Analyst simulations have gained relevance with recent successes. In the last Club World Cup, the system indicated Chelsea Football Club as the main candidate, and the English club confirmed the title in a decision against Paris Saint-Germain.
On the other hand, history also includes predictions that did not come true. In , Brazil led the odds, with more than 16%, but ended up outside the top four positions. The title went to the Argentine Football Team, which beat the French Football Team in the final.
Another example comes from the current edition of the Premier League. The projection pointed to Liverpool Football Club as the favorite for the title, but, with just a few rounds to go, the dispute remains undefined between Manchester City Football Club and Arsenal Football Club.
Check out the chances of 10 teams for the title
- 1st – Spain: 15.81%
- 2nd – France: 12.95%
- 3rd – England: 11.06%
- 4th – Argentina: 10.46%
- 5th – Portugal: 6.89%
- 6th – Brazil: 6.23%
- 7th – Germany: 5.76%
- 8th – Netherlands: 3.82%
- 9th – Norway: 3.39%
- 10th – Belgium: 2.40%
With information from Estadão content
