Amid tensions in the Middle East, estimates in the Focus Bulletin rise for the seventh week in a row and move further away from the Central Bank’s target ceiling of 4.50%
The median of the Focus report for the 2026 IPCA, the official inflation reference in the country, increased for the seventh consecutive week, from 4.80% to 4.86%moving away even more than the ceiling of the target pursued by the Central Bank, of 4.50%. The movement reflects the escalation of uncertainty with the war in the Middle East, which caused a spike in oil prices.
The estimate is in Focus Bulletin this Monday (13), research published weekly by the Central Bank (BC) with the expectation of financial institutions for the main economic indicators.
Considering only the 122 estimates updated in the last five business days, which are more sensitive to news, the median went from 4.85% to 4.89%.
The market’s intermediate estimate for the 2027 IPCA increased for the fifth consecutive week, from 3.99% to 4.0%. A month ago, it was 3.84%. Considering only the 118 projections updated in the last five business days, it remained at 4.0%.
The Central Bank predicts inflation of 3.9% in 2026 and 3.3% in the 12 months until the third quarter of 2027, the relevant horizon for monetary policy. The projection for next year’s IPCA is 3.3%.
From 2025 onwards, the inflation target became continuous, based on the IPCA accumulated over 12 months. The center is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less. If inflation stays outside this range for six consecutive months, the BC is considered to have missed the target.
In this Monday’s Focus, the 27th, the median for the 2028 IPCA went from 3.60% to 3.61%. A month earlier, it was 3.57%. The interim estimate for 2029 inflation remained at 3.50% for the 34th consecutive week.
Selic remains at 13% and at the end of 2027, at 11%
The median of the report Focus for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 remained at 13.0%on the eve of the decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). A month earlier, it was 12.50%. The market has been calibrating expectations for the path of interest rates, amid inflationary pressure caused by the spike in oil prices.
Considering only the 110 estimates updated in the last five business days, which are more sensitive to new developments, the median for the Selic at the end of 2026 also remained at 13.0%.
The Focus median for the Selic rate at the end of 2027 stabilized at 11.0%. A month ago, it was 10.50%. Considering only the 107 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median also remained at 11.0%.
In the last decision, on March 18, the Copom reduced the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 15% to 14.75% per year. It was the first interest rate decrease in almost two years. Despite the cut, the panel warned of increased uncertainty in the scenario, due to the conflict in the Middle East, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The president of the Central Bank, Gabriel Galípolo, said, during a press conference on March 26, that the “conservatism” of the monetary authority during 2025 would buy time to analyze the scenario and understand the effects of rising oil prices on domestic prices. “We understand and we will learn more from now until the next Copom meeting,” he stated.
In the latest Broadcast Projections survey, 33 of 37 financial institutions expected a new cut of 0.25 points in the Selic this week, which would take the rate to 14.50%. Two other respondents predicted a greater reduction, of 0.50 points, and two, maintaining interest rates at 14.75%.
In this Monday’s Focus, the median for Selic at the end of 2028 remained at 10.0% for the 14th reading in a row. The estimate for 2029 fell from 9.88% to 9.75%. A month earlier, it was also 9.75%.
2026 GDP of 1.86% to 1.85%
The Focus report median for market growth Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 fluctuated from 1.86% to 1.85%. A month earlier, it was 1.85%. Considering only the 81 projections updated in the last five business days, which are more sensitive to news, the estimate went from 1.89% to 1.87%.
The growth expected by the market is greater than that predicted by the Central Bank, of 1.6%, according to the Monetary Policy Report (RPM) for the first quarter. The Ministry of Finance expects a 2.33% increase in GDP.
The Focus median for Brazilian economic growth in 2027 remained at 1.80% for the 17th consecutive week. Taking into account only the 78 projections updated in the last five business days, the intermediate estimate went from 1.74% to 1.73%.
The medians for GDP growth in 2028 and 2029 remained at 2.0%, for the 111th and 58th week in a row, respectively.
Dollar goes from R$5.30 to R$5.25
The median of the Focus report for the dollar exchange rate at the end of 2026 fell for the third week in a row, from R$5.30 to R$5.25amid the appreciation of the Brazilian currency against the American currency. The data was released this Monday (27). Last Friday, the 24th, the dollar closed at R$4.9982.
A month earlier, the median for the dollar at the end of 2026 was R$5.40. Considering only the 94 estimates updated in the last five business days, which are more sensitive to news, the intermediate estimate went from R$5.25 to R$5.24.
The median for the dollar at the end of 2027 stabilized at R$5.35, after two weeks of decline. A month before, it was R$5.45. The intermediate estimate for the end of 2028 remained at R$5.40, while the projection for 2029 went from R$5.45 to R$5.41.
The annual exchange rate projection published in Focus is calculated based on the average for the rate in Decemberand not in the value projected for the last business day of each year, as it was until 2020.
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