Research shows the PT leader in 2 out of 3 scenarios tested in the 1st round; there is a draw with Flávio when Zema is out
Search Nexus/BTG Pactual, released this Monday (April 27, 2026), indicates that the president (PT) and the senator (PL-RJ) are tied in the 2nd round of the presidential dispute. The PT member has 46% of voting intentions, while the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has 45%.
The president also appears tied within the margin of error in the scenarios against former governors Romeu Zema (MG) and Ronaldo Caiado (GO): he has 45% of voting intentions against 41% of his opponent in both cases.
Nexus asked the following: “Thinking about a possible 2nd round between some candidates, who would you vote for for President of the Republic if you had to choose between”. Here are the answers in each scenario:
SCENARIO 1
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 46%;
- Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) – 45%;
- none/null/blank – 8%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 1%.
SCENARIO 2
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 45%;
- Romeu Zema (Novo) – 41%;
- none/null/blank – 12%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 2%.
SCENARIO 3
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 45%;
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) – 41%;
- none/null/blank – 11%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 2%.
2,028 voters were interviewed from April 24 to 26, 2026. The margin of error is 2 (pp) percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence interval. Registration with the TSE is BR-01075/2026. The survey cost R$ 164,888.89 and was paid by Banco BTG Pactual SA Here is the survey (PDF – 2 MB).
1st SHIFT
Nexus also tested 3 1st round scenarios. Lula appears in the lead in 2 of them, with 41% of voting intentions. Flávio is in 2nd place, with 36% to 38%. In the 3rd scenario, without Zema’s presence, the PT member and the senator tie within the margin of error (41% to 38%, respectively) and Caiado reaches 6%.
The company asked: “If the election were today and the candidates were the ones I’m going to read, who would you vote for for president of Brazil? Please wait for me to read all the names before giving your answer”.
Here are the answers:
SCENARIO 1
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 41%;
- Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) – 36%;
- Romeu Zema (Novo) – 4%;
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) – 3%;
- Renan Santos (Mission) – 3%;
- Augusto Cury (Forward) – 2%;
- Cape Daciolo (Mobilizes) – 1%;
- Aldo Rebelo (DC) – 1%;
- none/null/blank – 6%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 2%.
SCENARIO 2
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 41%;
- Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) – 36%;
- Romeu Zema (Novo) – 5%;
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) – 4%;
- Renan Santos (Mission) – 4%;
- Aldo Rebelo (DC) – 1%;
- none/null/blank – 7%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 2%.
SCENARIO 3
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) – 41%;
- Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) – 38%;
- Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) – 6%;
- Renan Santos (Mission) – 4%;
- Aldo Rebelo (DC) – 1%;
- none/null/blank – 7%;
- don’t know/didn’t answer – 2%.
SEARCH AGGREGATOR
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