He project Golden Domethe ambitious space anti-missile shield promoted by Donald Trump’s administration, already has concrete figures… and . own Pentagon admits system may not be viable neither technically nor economically on a large scale, despite the fact that its Estimated cost is around $185 billion. (about 170,000 million euros).
The program, designed for from space, has entered in initial phase with contracts for 3.2 billion dollars awarded to large companies in the defense sector.
However, long-term calculations push the budget to much higher figures, with estimates ranging between 161,000 million and 500,000 million dollars in 20 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
A system to intercept missiles… from space
The idea behind Golden Dome is to deploy armed satellites in low Earth orbit capable of detecting and destroying enemy missiles in different phases of flight. The objective is stay ahead of threats that are increasingly faster and harder to interceptespecially from countries like Russia o China.
The development is in the hands of a group of companies selected by the US Space Force. Among them stand out giants like General Dynamics or Booz Allen Hamiltonalong with new companies like Anduril.
Colonel Bryon McClain, head of the program, justified the project with a warning in a statement: “Adversary capabilities are advancing rapidly, and our acquisition strategies must accelerate even further”.
The official schedule points to initial capability in 2028, although full development of the system is far from complete.
The big problem: cost and scalability
The main obstacle is not technological, but economic. General Michael Guetlein, director of the Golden Dome program, openly acknowledged this before Congress: “What we do not know today is: ‘Can I do it on a large scale and affordably?’ That will be the great challenge“And he was even more direct: “If we can’t do it affordably, we won’t go into production.”
The problem is structural. The more missiles the system wants to intercept and the greater its coverage, the more the cost skyrockets. According to analyst Todd Harrison of the American Enterprise Institute, a fully operational version could reach $3.6 trillion in two decades. This creates a clear gap between what is promised politically and what is feasible in practice.
An arms race in space
Beyond the cost, Golden Dome opens another debate: the militarization of space. Defense experts warn that These types of systems can accelerate a global arms racewith effects that are difficult to control.
If the US deploys space interceptors, other countries could respond with anti-satellite systems, more advanced missiles to evade defenses and massive increases in arsenals to saturate the system.
In fact, both Russia and China have already criticized the project, considering it a destabilizing factor.. Both countries have developed anti-satellite capabilities in recent years, reinforcing the idea that space is becoming a new battlefield.
What if it doesn’t work?
The Pentagon itself is already contemplating an alternative scenario. Guetlein made it clear that space interceptors are not the only option. “If interception from space is not affordable or scalable, we will not produce it because we have other options.”
This implies that the Golden Dome It could end up being a hybrid system or even be partially ruled out if costs continue to rise.
A key project… with too many unknowns
Golden Dome representa one of the largest US defense projects in decades. But it is also an example of how the most advanced military technology collides with economic and strategic limits.
The current data reflects three certainties: development is already underway and has industrial support, the real cost could multiply initial estimates several times and its final viability remains in doubt, even within the Government itself.
