One of its main features is the instrumentalization of energy and the sense that the transition to a multipolar world is accompanied by geopolitical upheavals that are easy to escalate and difficult to predict. THE Mohammed Solimana fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington and author of the book , talks to Vima about war and the geopolitical implications of the emerging new world.
The war in Iran led to the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. What should we expect?
“Increased demand for energy defines the economy. To put it simply, technological development is directly related to how much power is available. When we refer to Artificial Intelligence we are talking about computers, i.e. about electricity efficiency. There is value in looking at China and its unique energy profile that includes coal, renewables and nuclear power. This arises as a need to address geographical constraints in case anything happens to the Straits of Malacca, to ensure energy sufficiency.
We have escaped the era where energy was used in a traditional way, we are in the era where the existence of nations is judged by energy. And the reason is that the instrumentalization of strategic points, the instrumentalization of energy is the new trend that will accompany us in the coming years. When the Prime Minister of Singapore says that he opposes the closure, it is because he is thinking exactly how much his country will be affected by the knock-on effects of the crisis.”
In short, are we entering an era of crises?
“Yes, in a time of multiple crises. The main one is that we have entered a phase of multipolarity for good. In this context, the Gulf region is the prime example of the interconnectedness and vulnerability of our world. To fly from Europe to Tokyo you go through Doha or Abu Dhabi. To find investments, one of the best options is the Gulf States, whose combined investment funds make up the third largest GDP in the world. In order to find the right negotiator in the Ukrainian, the help of Riyadh is now sought, instead of Geneva.
On the other hand, the very fact that the role of the Gulf states has been rechristened means the intense externalization of every crisis. “What happens in the Gulf does not stay in the Gulf” to paraphrase the famous phrase.
That is why in my book I use the term West Asia, the term Middle East fails to describe our world today. It is not enough to explain India’s involvement with Israel, Cyprus and Greece in the Mediterranean, nor why Turkey is trying to build its own ecosystem with countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Maldives.
And of course it does not explain the impressive rise of the Gulf states at the level of the world economy, nor the Asianization of the world order. One only has to think about the war in Iran, the fact that the powers that are working on and promoting peaceful solutions are Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Is there more circumstantial evidence that the Mediterranean, the Middle East and South Asia constitute a coherent geopolitical space?’
The geopolitical scheme of West Asia, which you describe, what role does it have in store for Greece?
“You are the northern limb of this geographical and geopolitical region. You have one of the largest merchant fleets, a front-loaded geography and a very important cultural asset, going back thousands of years. In addition, Greece enjoys a good reputation internationally, no one has a bad image of it and all this translates into a soft power that countries like Britain or France do not possess.
From a strategic point of view, everything I mentioned above makes you a very important actor. The issue for Greece in the coming years is that there are different plans for West Asia and she will have to choose which one to follow. Will it be the India-Israel-Greece axis or will it invest in the Pakistan-Qatar-Saudi Arabia system, which presupposes a state of long-term recession in Greek-Turkish relations? You will be asked to answer these questions, defining what is in your best interest.’
How did the Gulf countries achieve this process of economic and diplomatic maturation?
“The rise of the Gulf states is not only due to their mineral wealth, there are examples of countries such as Venezuela or Congo that did not develop the same dynamics. They succeeded through rewarding efficiency, through an economic elite entrepreneurial activities, overcoming the stereotype of the oil country. Today, the artificial intelligence infrastructure in Europe is built by companies from the Gulf kingdoms. This shift from oil dominance to new technologies elevates the region to a world powerhouse.
And it partly explains Iran’s targeting of data centers and technology hubs. Tehran fears it has been left behind in the competition when much smaller states have transformed into dynamic, digital economies. That is why the targets of the attacks were not only refineries but also computer data centers, airports and hotels, i.e. the entire network of the economies of these countries.”
How do you rate the US strategy?
“If we attempt a first assessment, we will see that the US has succeeded in the military field, destroying many of its targets, but has not succeeded in turning its superiority into a political result. Today we have Mojtaba Khamenei in power together with the Revolutionary Guards instead of a situation which would lead – according to the originally declared goal – to the collapse of the theocratic system.
How things will develop we certainly don’t know and we can’t even see how much Tehran can be supported by China or Russia, although I’m still not convinced that there is some kind of solid, strong strategic alliance between them that goes beyond “marriage of interest”. Nor are we in a moment analogous to Suez: the US, despite not achieving the goals it had set diplomatically, remains the most powerful nation in the world, it has not entered the retreat phase that was France and Britain in 1956.”
Mohammed Soliman is a fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington and the author of the book “West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East”.
