In the “window of opportunity” that opens before him, he seems ready to test the reflexes of the West.
With the US in the process of gradually withdrawing from Europe and the EU not yet fully shielded, European governments are sounding the alarm: the Russian president might attempt a targeted strike, a “grey” hot episode, to break its unity, testing the limits of Article 5 without necessarily resorting to an all-out land invasion.
The “window of opportunity” for Putin and the fear of NATO
European governments are worried that Vladimir Putin will see the current situation as the perfect time to strike. Defense officials and lawmakers fear the Kremlin will see the next 1.5-2 years, when Donald Trump is in the White House and the EU has yet to fully build up its defense capability, as the right time to test the West’s commitment to NATO
Although Russia’s war has shown it the limits of Moscow’s power, the Russian president has long signaled his desire to seize more territory.
“Something could happen very soon, there is a Russian window of opportunity,” said Mika Aaltola, a center-right Finnish MEP on the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “The US is withdrawing from Europe, transatlantic relations are in shambles and the EU is not yet fully ready to take on its responsibilities alone.”
The threat of “ambiguity” and hybrid warfare
While defense officials have not ruled out a ground attack, they consider it unlikely given that Russia is exhausted from the war in Ukraine. Instead, it is much more likely that Putin will do something more targeted or launch an invasion designed to create ambiguity, hoping to sow discord in NATO over whether the action qualifies for triggering Article 5’s mutual defense clause, Aaltola said.
Article 5 states that allies must treat an armed attack against one of them “as an armed attack against all”, but Trump has called NATO a “paper tiger”. Trump is expected to leave office in January 2029.
The unstable Trump factor and the attitude of the USA towards NATO
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Saturday that “the biggest threat to the transatlantic community” is “the continued disintegration of our alliance”.
If Putin is monitoring Trump’s commitment to NATO, then the latter’s domestic political challenges will play a role. If Republicans do poorly in November’s midterm elections, Trump may seek to win back his base by pushing harder against his “enemies” — NATO and Europe — and further withdrawing support for Ukraine ahead of the 2028 presidential election, according to a senior European defense official. The US has already announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany, with Trump having threatened similar moves in Italy and Spain.
Why “Russian despair” remains dangerous
Even though Russia is weakened, with Ukraine breaching its defenses and Kiev recapturing territory, this makes Putin even more dangerous.
“The escalation of the conflict in other theaters of operations could give Russia a card to play,” Aaltola points out. “The war is draining their resources, so they’re looking for a way out. And that way out is not peace negotiations, it is the extension of the conflict.”
From the Arctic to drones: The possible scenarios of a Russian escalation
Putin has many “soft” targets to choose from, with an attack taking many forms. It is unlikely that the Kremlin will do something as straightforward as an invasion where NATO is strong, such as on the Polish border.
“It could be a drone operation, an operation in the Baltic Sea or something in the Arctic, targeting small islands,” Aaltola explains. “They have the shadow fleet, which is already partially militarized. A drone strike doesn’t require troops, it doesn’t require crossing borders.”
By launching such an operation, Putin would seek to put pressure on Ukraine’s European allies while avoiding any response from the US, which may have advised negotiations rather than engagement.
Risk management or realism? The divided Europe in the face of the threat
Europe is not united in its assessment of the seriousness of the immediate Russian threat. There is tension between politicians from countries such as Finland and Lithuania, who call for an immediate defensive shield, and the more cautious approach in Estonia and NATO itself, where they see “riskology” as fueling Putin’s plans.
But preparedness advocates warn: those who downplay the threat risk cultivating a false sense of security. “This is actually the worst thing you can create in democratic countries,” says Aaltola. “We have to allocate resources, and if there is a false sense of security, resources are not allocated to defence.”
Because many doubt a direct Russian attack
Despite the warnings, many officials remain skeptical. “Russia is very busy in Ukraine,” said Estonian President Alar Karis. “I don’t think he has enough capability to try to wage war in the Baltic as well.”
Likewise, a senior NATO diplomat called the scenario “highly unlikely,” noting that Putin’s “suicidal tendencies” have their limits, especially when there is no immediate gain.
However, vigilance remains the dogma of the day. “You never know. And, no one expected the war in Ukraine,” concludes Karis. “We are alert. We are ready. We have our eyes open.”
