The round released at the end of April, with voting intentions in the race for governor of ten states, indicates a challenging scenario for PT candidates and an advantage for allies of () in the two largest electoral colleges in the country.
Of the 10 states with the surveys, in 3 there is an advantage of politicians in tune with Flávio —, Minas Gerais and Paraná. Supporters of () emerge ahead in 2 (Rio de Janeiro and Pernambuco).
Furthermore, in 3 states there is a technical tie (Bahia, Pará and Rio Grande do Sul), in 1 (Goiás) the advantage is that of an ally of () and, in another (Ceará), an undefined range of candidacies which, depending on the configuration, could .
From the list of Genial/Quaest polls, the PT has its own pre-candidates in Bahia, Ceará and São Paulo. In the latter, the former minister (PT) appears behind the governor (Republicans), an ally of Flávio, in the .
In Bahia, governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) works with ACM Neto (União Brasil). In Ceará, it depends on whoever leads the PT ticket to face the former governor (PSDB), who became a strong critic of Lula and flirted with an alliance that would include that of the Bolsonaro family.
Taking into account the other parties, Lula’s allies lead alone with João Campos (PSB) and Eduardo Paes (PSD) — whose party will have Caiado in the dispute for Planalto.
PL candidates also face difficulties in the states. The party has possible candidates in 6 of the 10 mapped states, but with Senator Sergio Moro, recently affiliated to the party.
In Rio Grande do Sul, Luciano Zucco (PL) appears numerically behind, but in line with Juliana Brizola (). Among the other names in the PL, Douglas Ruas appears second in Rio de Janeiro, Mário Couto in third in and Wilder Morais is third or fourth in , depending on the scenario. Businessman Flávio Roscoe was tested in , but appears with only 2%.
On the other hand, Flávio’s allies who are in other parties face a more comfortable scenario. This is the case of Tarcísio in São Paulo and senator Cleitinho (Republicans) in Minas Gerais, who lead in their respective states.
São Paulo and Minas are the two Brazilian states with the largest number of voters, more than 34 million and almost 16.5 million, respectively, according to figures from the last dispute.
Presidential candidates Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema (Novo) face different scenarios in their own electoral strongholds.
Caiado’s ally in Goiás, governor Daniel Vilela (MDB) appears in front, while the scenario in Minas is complex for Zema, where his ally, Mateus Simões (PSD), appears only in fourth place.
In the race for the Minas Gerais government, Cleitinho, who is linked to Bolsonarism, appears ahead, with 30%, but he has not yet confirmed whether he will enter the dispute, and the PL itself is still considering including Flávio Roscoe in the polls.
The former mayor of Belo Horizonte Alexandre Kalil (PDT) appears in second place, with 14%, but he is now far from the PT. In the October dispute, Lula now defends the candidacy of senator Rodrigo Pacheco (PSB), who scores 8%, in third place.
In Goiás, governor Daniel Vilela (MDB) leads with 33%, against 21% for former governor Marconi Perillo (PSDB). Names from the PT and PL appear next: PT federal deputy Adriana Accorsi has 10% and senator Wilder Morais, 9%.
Caiado’s regional platforms remain fragile in other states as well. In Minas, Mateus Simões remains an ally of Zema, while in Pernambuco, governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) tends to support President Lula, as does Paes in Rio.
In Paraná, Sandro Alex, PSD pre-candidate chosen by the current governor of Paraná, Ratinho Junior (PSD), registers just 5% of voting intentions. The group’s expectation is that it will grow, as the survey showed that 80% of voters approve of the current government in Paraná.
Quaest research pointed to a tougher scenario in three states: Pará, Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul.
Supporter of Lula, the governor of Pará, Hana Ghassan (MDB), appears with 19%, technically tied with the former mayor of Ananindeua Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos), who scores 22% and does not have a defined position for the presidential election.
In Bahia, the scenario is a technical draw in both the first and second rounds — in the final stage, ACM Neto has 41%, against 38% for Jerônimo Rodrigues.
ACM Neto has indicated support for Caiado, but his two candidates for the Senate, João Roma (PL) and Angelo Coronel (Republicans), will give Flávio Bolsonaro a platform.
Rio Grande do Sul replicates the national polarization scenario, with a technical draw between Juliana Brizola and Luciano Zucco in the first round, but the Pedestista’s advantage in the second round. Leonel Brizola’s granddaughter, Lula’s ally, received 24% of voting intentions in the first stage of voting, against 21% for the PL federal deputy.
In Ceará, Ciro Gomes leads against governor Elmano de Freitas (PT), but would lose in a scenario against Camilo Santana (PT).
In the first round, in a configuration with the current governor and without Camilo, Ciro has 41% of intentions and Elmano appears with 32%. In a first round scenario considering Camilo instead of Elmano, Ciro gets 33%, while Lula’s former Minister of Education scores 40%.
